5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 17
Los Angeles Chargers' Rushing Offense
If you're looking to pay up at running back this week, good luck. Todd Gurley's status is iffy. Christian McCaffrey might finally get some well-deserved rest. Ezekiel Elliott's and Alvin Kamara's teams are already locked into their respective seeds.
Melvin Gordon's the one unicorn who has it all, including a favorable matchup as he faces the Denver Broncos.
Gordon's first game back from injury certainly won't blow your doors off. He ceded third-down work to Justin Jackson and finished with just 12 carries and 3 targets, the target total being his lowest of the year for a full game. His 66.7% snap rate was the lowest for a game he finished since Week 6.
But that game was on Saturday and Gordon's first off a multi-game absence. He has seven days of rest between then and Sunday, and the Chargers should be pushing hard for a win. The reins should be off for this one.
If that does, indeed, happen, Gordon could blow up. The Broncos' rush defense has struggled all year to stop opposing backs.
For the full season, the Broncos have allowed opposing running backs to average 4.77 yards per carry with 0.01 Rushing NEP per carry and a 42.7% Success Rate. The league-average Success Rate for running backs is 41.5%, meaning Denver has been a below-average unit in that department.
One thing to keep in mind whenever looking at Denver's defense, though, is their home-road splits. Mile High is a tough environment, and it allows the defense to crank things up a notch when they're in Denver. That just hasn't necessarily been the case with the rush defense.
When the Broncos have been on the road, opposing running backs have a 39.0% Success Rate; at home, that goes up to 45.9%. This doesn't mean that we should go out of our way to target backs going into Denver, but it does allow us to buy into someone as filthy as Gordon when he ventures there.
In the first meeting between these two teams, Gordon racked up 156 yards from scrimmage, 87 of which came as a receiver. Eight running backs have gotten at least five targets in a game against the Broncos this year, and Gordon is one of five with at least 40 receiving yards. This matchup plays into both of the assets that Gordon provides.
There is one lingering concern with this Chargers team, though. They are depending on a Chiefs loss to win the AFC West, meaning they need the Raiders to pull an upset to have a chance.
It's possible the Chiefs get out to a big early lead against the Raiders, lowering the Chargers' shot at the number one seed even further. If that were to happen, it would be tempting for head coach Anthony Lynn to pull players and get them prepared for a wild-card round match. That adds a degree of risk into rolling out Gordon and his teammates.
Even when we factor this in, though, Gordon's team still has more motivation than any of the other high-priced backs outside of Conner's, and Conner is in the same spot injury-wise that Gordon was last week. If you want to pay up at running back, Gordon is the safest for cash games, and his upside is as high as any of the others for tournaments.
The other mark in favor of Gordon is that no running back on this slate comes without questions, whether it be motivation, workload, or matchup. Gordon has at least two of the three, and he could have all three for the full game. That's enough to make him one of the most desirable options at running back in any salary tier.
