Evaluating 2018's NFL Rookie Quarterbacks
Josh Allen
Allen was exactly as advertised coming out of college: athletic, fun as hell, and super erratic. Even if he never pans out for the Buffalo Bills, at least the ride will be entertaining.
As mentioned in the beginning, Allen led the league in deep rate at 29.1%. That was a full three percentage points clear of Ryan Fitzpatrick in second at 26.0%, and nobody else was higher than 24.0%. In theory, that should have made him more efficient. Things didn't quite play out that way.
Allen finished the year ranked 38th in Passing NEP per drop back, topping Ryan Tannehill, Rosen, and three backups. Part of that was due to a poor offensive line, but Allen actually slips to 39th in Passing NEP per attempt if you take sacks out of the equation.
The deep balls were definitely voluminous for Allen, but they weren't successful all that often. He added an average of 0.07 Passing NEP per deep attempt, ranking 38th out of 41 quarterbacks with at least 100 total attempts. And remember, this isn't looking at his completion percentage, which will always be low due to the nature of his deep balls. This is looking at expected points, meaning the full value of his 75-yard bombs to Robert Foster is taken into account.
As with Darnold, though, not all of Allen's struggles belong on his shoulders. It'd take a miracle worker to thrive with Kelvin Benjamin as your lead receiver.
We got a taste of this down the stretch after both Benjamin and Andre Holmes were released. Instead, Allen got to throw more to Foster, Zay Jones, and Isaiah McKenzie, and the results were much better.
| Allen in 2018 | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Targeting Foster, McKenzie, and Jones | 0.21 | 47.0% |
| Targeting Benjamin and Holmes | -0.12 | 31.8% |
Allen's Passing NEP per attempt and Success Rate when targeting those three were still below the league-wide averages of 0.23 and 51.0%, respectively, but it's a whole lot rosier than it was with Benjamin and Holmes.
With regards to the rushing, Allen should absolutely keep doing it. We always talk about how rushing is a cheat code for quarterbacks in fantasy, but it's the same thing in real life.
Here's a look at the NEP marks for rush attempts depending on who was the rusher in 2018. Rushing is generally less efficient than passing, but it's different when the person running is the quarterback.
| Rushing in 2018 | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks | 0.34 | 60.3% |
| Running Backs | 0.00 | 41.2% |
If you've got a quarterback who's willing and able to run, you should encourage them to do so. Allen won't need the extra nudge.
Allen finished the year with 46.55 Rushing NEP, easily the most in the entire league among quarterbacks. His -15.22 Passing NEP ranked 38th out of 43 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. But once you add in what he did as a rusher, he leaps up to 29th on that list, second among all rookies behind only Mayfield. Sure, teams could devote more resources to stopping Allen from scrambling next year, but that should in turn open up more passing lanes. Allen's athleticism is a major plus.
If the Bills are looking for a model for handling Allen, it should likely be what the Chicago Bears have done with Mitchell Trubisky. Trubisky's efficiency on both short and deep passes is roughly the league average. But because he throws it deep at an above-average rate and is willing to run, he finished 2018 ranked 12th in Total NEP. A similar plan of attack could be successful with Allen.
Allen's appeal from a fantasy perspective heading into 2019 is a bit tricky. If he continues running, he should bring a solid floor and ceiling combination. But if teams actively try to stop him from scrambling, he'll be more dependent on his arm to blow up. Allen never exceeded 250 passing yards in a game this year.
The skill-position players will be important to track for Buffalo from both a fantasy and a betting perspective. If they do make improvements in that department, it'll make the floor of the entire team much more attractive. If they neglect that, the Bills are going to be a high-variance team, and it's possible they could even take a step back from their six-win 2018.
It's important to keep tabs on all teams in the offseason if you want to be successful in either fantasy or betting. But the Bills may be at the top of that list for 2019. Allen's passing development will be highly dependent on an influx of talent around him, and those strides will help dictate the floor for him in fantasy and for the team from a betting perspective. There's a lot on the line this offseason, and the Bills had better be trying to prop up their first-round pick.
