Which Quarterback in the 2019 NFL Draft Class Is Statistically Superior?
5. Ryan Finley, N.C. State
Age: 24 | Games Played: 42 | AY/A: 8.1 | Passing Efficiency Rating: 148.0 | Total QBR: 78.6
Top Statistical Comp: Eli Manning
In a way, Finley falls into the same bucket as Lock: he's experienced, but his efficiency was only acceptable. The problem with Finley is that he isn't as experienced as Lock, he's two years older, and he never had a season as good as what Lock had in 2017.
The age thing does stick out a bit for Finley compared to other first-round picks. He'd be the oldest first-round pick since 2000 outside of Brandon Weeden, who was 28, and Finley is just two months younger than Jared Goff. It's unlikely Finley goes that high, but it's certainly worth noting.
This past season was Finley's best from an efficiency perspective. He had an 8.1 AY/A (up from a previous high of 7.6 in 2016), and his 148.0 passing efficiency rating topped his 2017 mark of 136.0.
Although this does show progression, it also means Finley never had a truly elite season. The other four players on this list ahead of him all had at least one season with an AY/A above 10.0, and Finley topped out at 8.1. The overall profile of Finley's efficiency just feels bland.
Something that could help him a bit is that Finley played well against top defenses. He had six games against teams in the top 50 in S&P+'s pass defense rankings, and his 8.7 AY/A in that split was just a hair behind Grier's for third among our seven quarterbacks. That means that Finley's AY/A was better against stout competition than it was against weaker defenses. As confusing as it may be, it at least doesn't hurt Finley's profile.
Part of the reason for this likely comes down to Finley's performance against Texas A&M in the Gator Bowl. Even though Texas A&M was ranked 68th against the pass, Finley threw two interceptions to one touchdown while accumulating just 139 yards on 32 attempts. It was his worst performance of the season outside of a clunker against Clemson, the eventual national champions.
It's probably not a coincidence that this downtick came with Finley's top receiver, Kelvin Harmon, sitting out. Harmon was preparing for the NFL draft, an indicator that the dude was pretty freaking good, and his presence seemed to play a big role in Finley's numbers this year.
According to Rotoworld's Hayden Winks, Finley averaged 10.0 yards per attempt when targeting Harmon this year. That fell to 7.7 when throwing elsewhere.
This isn't something that's damning for Finley or anybody else by any means. Lock had an even larger split when targeting Emanuel Hall, and Lock did largely struggle in a five-game stretch without Hall, as well. It's just worth noting that Finley may have benefited a bit from having Harmon to go up and snatch balls downfield.
Finley's not a first-round pick, and he's not being touted as one, sitting sixth of our seven quarterbacks in ESPN's rankings. As such, it seems fine for a team to burn some draft capital on him later in the draft. There's just not a ton to get jazzed about from his statistical profile.
