Dynasty Fantasy Football: 6 Buy-Low Targets for This Offseason

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

ADP: 66th (WR33)

Heading into 2018, Doug Baldwin was fresh off three straight years of being a top-13 wideout in PPR leagues. One of the game's most consistent receivers, Baldwin spent nearly two years with an ADP in the 25 to 50 range, and he was 34th overall (WR17) in July of last summer.

But Baldwin struggled in 2018, and his price has fallen quite a bit -- outside the top-30 receivers. There's reason, however, to believe he could rebound in 2019.

First and foremost, Baldwin wasn't healthy this past year, dealing with a knee injury that he himself -- in the preseason -- said wouldn't be 100% at any point in 2018. In hindsight, that should've been our first clue that his season wasn't going to go well.

Baldwin was a constant on the injury report all year, starting right away. He saw just one target in an injury-shortened Week 1 outing and didn't play again until Week 4. It was clear he wasn't right, even when he played. Over 13 games in 2018, Baldwin had five outings with fewer than five targets. Over his previous 27 regular-season games prior to 2018, he had five games with fewer than five targets.

"That's because Tyler Lockett broke out," you may be thinking. Well, Lockett saw only 70 targets, though he beasted with those looks.

The big culprit -- aside from Baldwin being banged up -- was Seattle's reliance on the run. The 'Hawks were -- by far -- the most run-heavy offense in the NFL in 2018, running the ball on a whopping 52% of their plays, per Sharp Football Stats. No other team over the last three years has run it more than they've thrown it in a single season. The safe money is on Seattle -- who passed it 59% of the time in both 2016 and 2017 -- throwing it at least a little more moving forward.

As for Lockett, he had an incredibly (and likely unsustainably) efficient year and was probably under-utilized. But as the season progressed, Baldwin got healthier, saying prior to Week 11 he was over his knee issue, though he missed Week 14 with a hip injury. From Week 11 on, Baldwin re-established himself as the top target in the Seahawks' passing game, seeing 17 more targets than Lockett and racking up 5 touchdowns (in six games) over the remainder of the regular season despite being sidelined for one game.

There's reason to think Baldwin's slow start to the year was due to his troublesome knee, and while Lockett could (and should) see more volume than he did in 2018, that could be offset by the likelihood that Seattle passes more overall. While he's entering his age-31 season and probably doesn't have many more years left as a big-time weapon, Baldwin looks like a strong candidate for a bounce-back in 2019.