Fantasy Football: 5 Backfields With the Most Available Volume in 2019
Detroit Lions
In the 2018 regular season, 72 running backs saw at least 50 carries. Among that group, the average carry generated 0.01 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP), a metric that measures how much a team's expected point total changes on any given play.
So, when these high-value backs got the ball, there was a very, very slight positive impact on the prospects of their team's drive, on average.
That was not the case for LeGarrette Blount, whose average of -0.16 was the fifth-worst mark among those 72 backs. Even worse, only 29.9% of his carries generated positive NEP, which was the second-worst Rushing Success Rate in the group.
The Lions' coaching staff, apparently unconcerned with something as minor as scoring points, still leaned on Blount for a team-high 154 carries. That was good for 38.1% of the team's total.
Zach Zenner also saw 55 carries, and together Blount and Zenner handled 51.7% of the team's rush attempts. They both saw more volume than they might have otherwise thanks to second-round rookie Kerryon Johnson missing the final six weeks of the season with a knee injury, holding him to a 29.2% rush attempt market share.
Blount and Zenner are both unrestricted free agents this offseason, and now back to full strength, Johnson could be in for a serious workhorse role.
After notching single-digit carries in three of his first four games, Johnson's final six saw him tally at least 12 carries five times, averaging 13.3 rush attempts and 4.3 targets per game.
Even when Johnson played last year, Blount averaged 7.8 carries per game. With Johnson's effectiveness (0.07 Rushing NEP per carry in his rookie year) and the increased volume they gave him as the season went on, there's not much of a risk that the Lions look to bring in a replacement or re-sign Blount.
Already averaging north of 13 carries over a reasonable sample, Johnson's workload stands to go from good to great with the extra touches he should pick up with Blount out of town.
