5 Overvalued Wide Receivers Heading Into Your Fantasy Football Drafts

Percy Harvin

People just can’t seem to give up on Percy Harvin. Why? Probably in part because he’s shown, at least up until his 2012 season, that when healthy he’s an after-the-catch wizard, and also because he really was nasty from a fantasy perspective in his two pinnacle years as a Minnesota Viking in 2010 and 2011. In 2012 he was headed for even more of a monster season prior to getting injured.

That 2012 season included an impressive stat line of 62 receptions for 677 yards and 3 touchdowns to go with 22 rushing attempts for 96 yards and 1 rushing touchdown over nine games. All told, Harvin was headed for over 1,300 all-purpose yards and roughly 8 touchdowns if you extrapolate his performance in those nine games in 2012 to a full 16-game season.

But since that injury in 2012, Harvin’s only played 14 regular season games and always seems to be ailing. Harvin’s 2011 season is the only one in which he’s played a full 16-game slate, and while injuries are often random occurrences, it’s tough not to think of Harvin’s injuries as a pattern.

And how good has Harvin truly been when on the field since his 2012 injury-shortened season? Actually, he’s been pretty bad. Looking at his 2014 season, Harvin wasn’t just inefficient -- he was nearly the worst receiver in the league on a per-target basis. Of the 60 receivers with at least 75 targets last season, Harvin finished 58th in terms of per-target efficiency with a paltry 0.41 Reception NEP per target.

Now it’s true, some of this blame can be hoisted on the shoulders of one Geno Smith. But five of Harvin’s 13 games in 2014 were played with Russell Wilson, and Geno Smith wasn’t exactly Blake Bortles bad, posting a 0.01 Passing NEP per drop back compared to Bortles’ aforementioned -0.18 Passing NEP per drop back.

Despite Bortles’ awful play, his three main receivers, Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee, and Allen Hurns each managed to outperform Harvin’s per-target effectiveness in 2014.

Prior to his incredibly inefficient 2014, Harvin’s per-touch metrics were much more favorable, with a career Reception NEP per target resting at an above-average 0.71. So while one might expect some regression back toward his career average, the situation in Buffalo isn’t exactly inviting. The quarterback battle between not-so-heavyweights E.J. Manual, Tyrod Taylor, and Matt Cassel rages on, and Sammy Watkins is the unquestioned number-one receiver in the Bills offense.

I can understand the temptation to take a flier on Harvin as his draft price currently is sitting at the 48th receiver being drafted on average. But numberFire projects Harvin to perform as the 59th-best fantasy receiver in 2015, and it’s been a long time since Harvin was taking bubble screens to the house in Minnesota. With another assuredly poor quarterback at the helm in 2015, I’d rather take an Anquan Boldin-type veteran at a (somehow!) lower draft position, and reap the value rewards of durability and dependability.