3 Late-Round Running Backs Le'Veon Bell Owners Should Target in Fantasy Football Drafts
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 1 & 2 Schedule (Def Rank): vs. TEN (#31), at NO (#32)
ADP (Std/PPR): 72/77
Recently, I wrote about why Doug Martin was the back to own in Tampa Bay and why he was a great bargain at his current mid-to-late round ADP as the Buccaneer's likely early-down workhorse.
Now we have another reason to target him in the middle of your draft this upcoming season: He has arguably the easiest two-week opening schedule of any running back being drafted beyond the fifth round.
The Bucs open the season at home against Tennessee, the 31st-ranked run defense according to our numbers before going to New Orleans to face the 32nd-ranked run defense in the Saints.
And when we measure the efficiency of these run defenses according to our Adjusted Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, it's obvious why these two teams fall to the bottom of the barrel. For those unfamiliar, Adjusted Defensive NEP is our measure of how many points a team gives up or takes away from an opponent adjusted for strength of schedule and situation (down and distance). Last season, Tennessee and New Orleans were on average giving up 0.05 and 0.11 NEP per rushing play, good for 29th and 32nd in the league.
For the Titans, after passing on defensive tackle Leonard Williams in the draft and instead opting to focus on the revamping the offense with selections of Marcus Mariota and Dorial Green-Beckham in the first two rounds, there isn't much reason to be optimistic for Tennessee's run defense this season.
And for the Saints, the release of starting defensive lineman Junior Galette this past week and the propensity for Rob Ryan to overuse the nickel package and regularly trot out just two linebackers onto the field likely means things won't get much better for their run defense in 2015.
With the Bucs coaching staff giving Doug Martin a chance to prove that he's the best early-down back on the roster, and facing two bottom-ranked defenses to start the season, Bell owners could do worse than use Doug Martin as a spot-starter during Bell's two game suspension. And given his role on this team, if he starts the season on a roll, he could carry this momentum into the rest of the season to provide solid RB2 value for fantasy managers willing to take a chance on him in the middle rounds of the draft.
