The 5 Worst Teams for the Upcoming 2015 NFL Season
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Record: 6.7-9.3
Playoff Probability: 17.2%
Division Probability: 9.3%
Super Bowl Probability: 0.4%
nERD: -6.52
Not much went right for the Bucs last season, winners of just 1 of their last 12 games. Gone is Josh McCown, and in his place steps the much ballyhooed rookie Jameis Winston. Although expectations are high for the former Heisman trophy winner, the 2015 season could be one wrought with growing pains.
He does have sophomore wide receiver Mike Evans to target who turned in the 10th best Reception NEP per target mark among 40 wide receivers with at least 100 targets last season. At age 32, Vincent Jackson is on the downside of his successful career turning in three consecutive seasons of decreasing efficiency. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a name to watch as a potential red zone target.
For the Bucs to defy the odds and turn in a successful season, a Doug Martin resurgence is much needed. He’s looked good in the preseason but will need to be consistent during the regular season to shake the "one-year wonder" tag. The loss of Demar Dotson is troublesome for an offensive line that finished 30th in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play last season and will likely be starting two rookies this season.
The centerpieces of the Tampa Bay defense are Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David. McCoy racked up 8.5 sacks in 13 games last season, tied for third among all defensive tackles. David registered 146 tackles, third most among linebackers.
It’s little surprise we projected Tampa Bay to have the second-best rush defense. The secondary, however, is not so solid. Both Alterraun Verner and Sterling Moore were graded as above-average last season according to Pro Football Focus, but the safety corps could end up being an Achilles heel.
The NFC South was won by a sub .500 team last season, so anything could happen. But with just a 9.3 percent chance of winning the division according to our projections, it won’t likely be Tampa Bay earning a playoff spot.
