10 Fantasy Football Sleepers for Week 3

Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Yeah, we're going here. Bortles was a disaster last season, according to our Net Expected Points (NEP) metrics, which compare a player's performance to expectation level. Based on his Passing NEP, Bortles lost the team nearly 100 points from expectation level -- and even more when compared to what an actual average quarterback was earning teams.

This week, Bortles faces the New England Patriots as 13.5-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 47.5, which suggests the Jags will score around 17 points. That's one of the lowest totals on the weekend. So why the heck would you consider him?

Well, Bortles finished as a top-12 quarterback last week after throwing for 273 yards and 2 touchdowns (while adding 27 yards on the ground) against Miami. New England ranks 18th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play (but full disclosure: Bortles ranks 34th in Passing NEP among 37 quarterbacks so far this year). They allowed a full stat line to the also-mobile Tyrod Taylor last week (Bortles ranked third in Rushing NEP among quarterbacks last year, so he's got some ability on the ground).

Oh, their cornerback play is very beatable, especially with Allen Robinson doing what he does.

It's not a pretty recommendation, and it could easily blow up for a disastrous day. But if you're looking for an unheralded guy to put up a solid day, Bortles could do it in this matchup.