DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football Helper for Week 5
Quarterbacks
High-Cost Option: Tom Brady $7,800
In this week's projected highest scoring game by Vegas, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots return from their bye week for a road game against the Dallas Cowboys. Brady has been playing lights out this season, accruing 28.5 fantasy points per game while averaging over 370 passing yards per game and 3 touchdowns. Unreal. Given an extra week to prepare for a middle of the road Dallas defense, ponying up $7,800 for Brady seems like a potential steal.
Dallas has had a tough time putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks as they've only amassed six sacks and two interceptions through the first four games; this has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.7% of their throws, as the Cowboys rank in the bottom-10 in all three of these categories. They now square off with an offense that passes the ball on 66.4% of their plays (third-most). The Patriots have only allowed 6 sacks on the season, 0 interceptions, and are connecting on 72.2% of their passing attempts.
Despite the new changes this season on the interior of this offensive line, Bill Belichick has this offense firing on all cylinders. Brady enters this game on pace for over 5,930 yards and 48 touchdowns. Entering the game as 7.5-point road favorites, the Patriots could easily finish with a double digit lead if Dallas is unable to keep pace with New England's 5.7 red zone trips per game.
Mid-Cost Option: Peyton Manning $7,000
Facing AFC West divisional rival the Oakland Raiders, Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos make the trip out west to O.co Coliseum as 5.5-point road favorites. The Broncos passing offense has had to carry the offense this season, as they pass the ball 64.6% of the time -- eighth most in the league.
Allowing the fifth-most points to opposing quarterbacks, Manning needs all the help he can get at this time as he's averaging a lousy 15.1 fantasy points per game. Manning has struggled this season by numberFire's metrics: his 0.01 Passing NEP per drop back ranks 30th of the 41 quarterbacks to attempt a pass so far this season. Manning should be able to get things back on track against a Raiders defense allowing the second-most passing yards and fifth-most passing touchdowns.
Outside of the Week 1 chess match the Broncos had with the Baltimore Ravens, when Manning has faced defenses ranked in the bottom-12, he's put up over 21 fantasy points. Despite being the road team, Manning could hit that 21-point mark again (and subsequently, our value threshold) in a game where Vegas projects the Broncos to score 27 points.
Low-Cost Option: Philip Rivers $6,200
Behind a rotating plethora of offensive lineman as mentioned in Dan Pizzuta's "All-32: NFL Power Rankings", Philip Rivers has been able to overcome his offensive line's lack of consistency to a current QB8 ranking on the season. Despite a salary drop after posting a 29.2 fantasy point performance last week, Rivers is a terrific low-cost option at only $6,200 against a Pittsburgh secondary that's been bleeding points.
The Chargers square up on Monday Night Football against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks -- but that number may be misleading after two terrific defensive outings against Nick Foles and Joe Flacco. Prior to those two games, the Steelers had allowed 22.07 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in their last 12 games, a cumulative output that would've ranked third-worst in 2015.
Rivers will get a healthy Antonio Gates back from suspension just in time as two of San Diego's receivers sustained injuries last week. Last year's third overall tight end in PPR scoring, Gates will be a timely addition, as the Steelers allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Projected 3.5-point home favorites in this matchup, the Chargers passing attack could be a very profitable daily play at most of the player's prices.
GPP Wildcard: Alex Smith $5,500
This week's GPP wildcard play is Kansas City's Alex Smith at only $5,500. Not only is he a terrific punt position, but he should likely be one of the lower owned quarterbacks in Week 5.
As Brandon Gdula noted in his weekly quarterback streaming series, "the Chiefs are 10-point home favorites against a Bears team that ranks 29th in our Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play metric." The Chicago defense ranks 14th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks but were torched by both Aaron Rodgers (23.1 fantasy points) and Carson Palmer (22.2). Receiver Jeremy Maclin has been on fire for the Chiefs as of late, collecting a stat line of 19-281-1 over the past two weeks. Finally with a reliable, established weapon on the perimeter, we may see what Andy Reid and this offense can become.
Smith has been terrific on the road this season, averaging 21.3 fantasy points per game. As huge home favorites this week, look for Smith to easily retain value at only $5,500.