5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 17
Detroit Lions Passing Offense
If both squads were at full health, you could make a strong case for the Chicago Bears, too. But with the Bears bubble-wrapping Alshon Jeffery in a meaningless season, it's hard to trust them at all. That doesn't lower my interest in the Detroit Lions, though.
The Bears enter this game ranked 28th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Over their past six games, they have allowed five quarterbacks to finish in the top 10 in weekly scoring against them; the only one who didn't was Aaron Rodgers. This means the unstoppable weapons of Blaine Gabbert, Brock Osweiler, and Teddy Bridgewater did. Whew.
The defense will now be forced to face a Lions offense that has been clicking ever since the Kansas City Chiefs obliterated them in London in Week 8. At the conclusion of that game, Matthew Stafford had turned his 321 drop backs on the season into -0.02 Passing NEP per drop back. Over his 272 drop backs since, Stafford is sitting at 0.23 Passing NEP per drop back, which would be the eighth best total in the league if extrapolated over the whole season.
This is a defense that the Lions have already shredded once this season. Back in Week 6 -- before the offense's resurgence -- Stafford threw for 405 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception against the Bears. You shouldn't be expecting anywhere close to a similar output this week, but Stafford does bring ceiling with a seemingly acceptable floor.
Endorsing Stafford isn't the hard part here, given the consistency he has had in the fantasy realm of late; it's picking a pass catcher on whom you can depend.
After seeing his role decrease four consecutive weeks, Calvin Johnson rebounded Sunday by turning 10 targets into 6 receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown. That said, only one of his eight touchdowns this season has come on the road. His floor isn't pretty, but he is at least in play for some tournament exposure.
Of the two main options, Golden Tate appears to have the much loftier floor. Over the past five games, he has seen 23.58 percent of the team's targets, and he has out-targeted Megatron, 11 to 7, in the red zone. Logic would dictate that Johnson would be the more desirable red-zone option, so those numbers may not be sustainable, putting a dent in Tate's value.
This is a situation where I wouldn't mind using Stafford in a tournament by himself. More often than not, you'll want to pair your quarterback with his top pass catcher in order to double dip on any production they have. Here, however, there isn't a clear top option, so if Stafford hits, you could weigh your team down by selecting the wrong side.
I do think you can use Stafford in a stack with either Tate or Johnson. The upside with both is enough to make this a viable strategy. The uncertainty, though, does make a naked Stafford play a logical one in this instance.
