4 Fantasy Football Running Backs Looking to Bounce Back in 2016
Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens
2015 ADP: RB10
2015 Finish: RB41
2016 ADP: RB28
The 28th running back going off the board, 31-year-old Justin Forsett has been left to rot by early fantasy drafters.
The ambiguity of the Baltimore backfield has drafters wary of spending high capital and not knowing who will emerge to benefit. However, there really shouldn't be much ambiguity.
Last season, Forsett saw 77.1% of the running back snaps when healthy throughout the first nine games. He averaged 13.3 fantasy points over that time span -- more points per game than rookie breakout David Johnson finished with.
It's been widely stated how much the "Trestman effect" has on running backs, but for good reason. Marc Trestman's offenses have featured a running back catching 69 or more passes on seven different occasions -- PPR gold for today's current NFL.
Forsett averaged 4.6 targets per game before his injury while averaging 19.8 touches in the process. Only seven other running backs surpassed this type of volume in touches, presenting a tremendous opportunity for Forsett to become an incredible value pick.
Expectations were sky-high for Forsett entering 2015, as he had an RB10 ADP. Excluding his injury-shortened final game, Forsett's 13.3 fantasy points per game would've finished as the RB17 last year, far better than his current RB28 draft position. A broken arm that ended his season prematurely doesn't look to have any ill-effects moving forward. It's important to keep in mind that it was an upper body injury and not anything to his legs that cut short his 2015 campaign.
The Baltimore offense will get a bevy of players returning from injury this year in Joe Flacco, Steve Smith, and Breshad Perriman. A revamped and rekindled offensive core (the Ravens also added Benjamin Watson and Mike Wallace) leaves a lot of room for projection when forecasting how Baltimore's offense will fare.
The one constant will be Justin Forsett. Playing in an offense that historically skyrockets running back statistics, Forsett's current ADP presents a league-winning value pick that is currently going in the sixth and seventh rounds of fantasy drafts.
