Looking at Last Season's Finishes to Find This Year's Breakout Fantasy Football Players
Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
Zach Ertz has been a popular breakout pick for the past two seasons, and while he’s put up solid numbers each year, Ertz has never truly exploded.
He may have started his breakout in the final four weeks of 2015. Over those four games, Ertz turned 46 targets into 35 catches, gaining 450 yards and scoring once.
| Opponent | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 14 | Bills | 7 | 5 | 98 | 0 |
| Week 15 | Cardinals | 13 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Week 16 | Redskins | 17 | 13 | 122 | 1 |
| Week 17 | Giants | 9 | 9 | 152 | 0 |
Obviously, Ertz is not going to average 11.5 targets per game this season. With that said, he maintained impressive efficiency while getting heavy volume in that three-game stretch, averaging 9.8 yards per target. With that kind of per-target production, he can still put up good numbers with a decrease in volume.
The Eagles changed head coaches this offseason, hiring Doug Pederson, the former offensive coordinator of the Kansas City Chiefs. Pederson and the Eagles made quite a commitment to Ertz, signing him to a five-year, $42.5 million extension.
Philadelphia doesn’t look like it’ll be a powerhouse this fall, with some betting sites listing them at 30-to-1 odds -- next to last -- to win the NFC. It’s not hard to envision a scenario where Ertz and the Eagles’ offense gets some garbage time, which is what helped fuel Ertz’s big games in Week 15 and Week 16 last season.
With an ADP of TE12, Ertz is a great player to target for those who like to wait on tight ends, and he could provide really nice value this season.
