Looking at Last Season's Finishes to Find This Year's Breakout Fantasy Football Players
Zach Miller, TE, Chicago Bears
Over his time in Chicago, Jay Cutler hasn’t been a model of consistency, but you can always count on Cutler for two things:
1) His DGAF attitude.
2) And his propensity for throwing to the tight end the last three seasons.
Here’s what Chicago’s tight ends have done since the start of 2013:
| Year | Player | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Bennett | 94 | 65 | 759 | 5 |
| 2014 | Bennett | 128 | 90 | 916 | 6 |
| 2015 | Bennett/Miller | 126 | 87 | 878 | 8 |
Over the past three years, Cutler has targeted the tight end position 116 times per year, and it’s resulted in a per-season average of 80.7 catches for 851 yards and 6.3 touchdowns for Chicago’s tight end spot.
Martellus Bennett had some sort of weird falling out in Chicago and was put on injured reserve for the final three weeks.
That opened the door for Zach Miller, who was already emerging in previous weeks but took it to a new level as the starter. Beginning in Week 15, Miller hauled in 18 of 20 targets over the final three games, racking up 211 yards and a score in that stretch.
While he was ultra-efficient at the end of the year, Miller took advantage of his chances all season. Among tight ends with at least 40 targets, Miller ranked third in Reception NEP per target, trailing only Tyler Eifert and Rob Gronkowski.
Because of his circuitous career -- he didn’t play a regular-season snap in the NFL from 2012 to 2014 -- Miller is already entering his age-32 season, but he’s the Bears’ clear-cut top tight end now that Bennett is with the New England Patriots. Miller’s ADP doesn’t reflect that, however, as he is currently TE21.
If we go back to what Cutler’s tight ends have averaged over the past three seasons -- 80.7 receptions for 851 yards and 6.3 scores -- it equals 201 fantasy points (PPR), which would have ranked sixth last season.
Miller may not put up those kind of numbers -- after all, it was Bennett, not Miller, who accounted for a majority of that production over the past three years -- but he's being really undervalued right now.
