The 7 Riskiest Players in Fantasy Football

1. Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans

Heading into his second NFL season, Marcus Mariota has the widest range of projected values on this list, with a 72.68 CI.

Just look at his week to week fantasy point totals from last season to get a good understand as to why:

Including the four weeks with zeros due to him missing those games, he scored 210 fantasy points all season. Now, if we look at only the weeks in which he did play, then he averaged 17.5 fantasy points, which would add up to a total of 280 points over 16 weeks. That difference is very close to his CI range for this coming season.

He spent time this offseason with a strength and conditioning coach in hopes of staying healthier throughout the coming season, and has gained seven pounds of muscle since last year.

The Titans receiving corps also received a boost this offseason with the addition of Rishard Matthews, whose 0.98 Reception NEP per target ranked fourth in the NFL last season among all receivers with 50 or more targets. Tajae Sharpe was also added during the draft and has been running with the starters so far this offseason.

If Mariota can stay healthy and improve on last year’s performance, we predict he could finish as high as the eighth-best fantasy quarterback. Of course, with him having the greatest CI range of any player, that is no guarantee, and there are certainly reasons to believe he could disappoint fantasy owners this season.

He will be playing under a new head coach this season in an offense that has plans to lean heavily on their running game. Of the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks last season, Cam Newton (495) was the only one to attempt fewer than 500 passes. Tennessee’s plans certainly depend on their ability to establish a lead, but if they can do just that, Mariota may not have the opportunity to produce as a QB1 in fantasy.

If his fantasy performance falls to his CI floor projection as the 30th-ranked fantasy quarterback, Mariota will be unusable in any league format.