Daily Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Simulations for Week 2
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Quarterback
Cash-Game Standouts
With 2x values being commonplace at quarterback, we should seek a higher threshold. These eight passers hit 3x value most frequently in the simulations.
| Players | Salary | 3x Value |
|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | $6,000 | 39.3% |
| Lamar Jackson | $8,200 | 35.7% |
| Jared Goff | $7,600 | 35.2% |
| Derek Carr | $6,600 | 34.9% |
| Dak Prescott | $7,700 | 33.5% |
| Tom Brady | $7,800 | 33.4% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | $7,600 | 33.2% |
| Deshaun Watson | $8,500 | 32.8% |
- Even at $9,000, Patrick Mahomes just barely missed this list (32.8%).
- On a similar note, Lamar Jackson stands out as a stud performer at a high price tag.
- Despite leading the pack in 3x value frequency, Jacoby Brissett's median projections were just 15.9 FanDuel points, and his 75th-percentile projection was just 20.9. He's a low-ceiling play.
High-Floor, High-Ceiling Plays
There's no actual way to quantify the "best" plays on a slate, but digging into floor versus ceiling projections seems to show promise. In what I simplified into something called boom-or-bust rate (percentage of games hitting 3x value versus percentage of games falling shy of 2x value), these plays stand out.
| Player | Salary | Boom/Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $8,200 | 1.45 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $9,000 | 1.35 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $6,000 | 1.34 |
| Jared Goff | $7,600 | 1.32 |
| Dak Prescott | $7,700 | 1.20 |
| Derek Carr | $6,600 | 1.15 |
| Deshaun Watson | $8,500 | 1.13 |
| Tom Brady | $7,800 | 1.13 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | $7,600 | 1.11 |
- It's hard to hate this list of passers with more 3x games than sub-2x games.
- Of course, we shouldn't consider Brissett or Derek Carr particularly high-ceiling plays, but this may be the best list of all-around quarterback plays I could come up with by narrowing down the field with filters and not cherrypicking.
Tournament Standouts
What about looking just at raw projections? These quarterbacks have the highest 75th-percentile outcome in the sims.
| Players | Salary | Boom/Bust Ratio |
50th Pct |
75th Pct |
90th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | $9,000 | 1.35 | 23.19 | 28.71 | 33.94 |
| Lamar Jackson | $8,200 | 1.45 | 21.75 | 27.30 | 32.32 |
| Deshaun Watson | $8,500 | 1.13 | 21.91 | 27.08 | 31.34 |
| Jared Goff | $7,600 | 1.32 | 19.70 | 25.26 | 29.53 |
| Tom Brady | $7,800 | 1.13 | 19.94 | 25.14 | 30.04 |
| Dak Prescott | $7,700 | 1.20 | 19.67 | 24.93 | 29.21 |
| Drew Brees | $8,000 | 0.78 | 19.20 | 24.44 | 28.38 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | $7,600 | 1.11 | 19.27 | 24.42 | 28.92 |
- This really is an obvious list, but it's pretty important to keep tabs on what a player's true, realistic ceiling is. Spending down at quarterback can help your lineup hit a high point-per-dollar threshold, yet seeking the highest raw point projections generally require spending up at the position.
- The highest 75th-percentile score of a quarterback below $7,500 belongs to Andy Dalton ($7,200; 22.3).
Bust Candidates
I'm not sure how helpful this'll be, but these quarterbacks appear as the least likely to hit 2x value.
| Players | Salary | Less Than 2x |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | $6,400 | 48.1% |
| Gardner Minshew II | $6,400 | 43.6% |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,300 | 42.9% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | $6,200 | 42.4% |
| Case Keenum | $6,900 | 40.0% |
| Eli Manning | $6,400 | 39.6% |
| Russell Wilson | $7,600 | 38.9% |
| Marcus Mariota | $7,400 | 38.4% |
- The biggest name to note for me is Russell Wilson in a game that could either be a shootout or could be a pace-down dud. His 75th-percentile projection is just 22.7.
Running Back
Cash-Game Standouts
Median value projections are much different among the positions. For example, every main slate quarterback is projected for at least 2x value this week, per numberFire's projections, and 10 passers are at 2.5x. No running back is at 2.5x, and 17 are at 2x.
With that in mind, these rushers projected for 2x value at least 50% of the time in the simulations.
| Players | Salary | 2x Value |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | $6,500 | 57.9% |
| Alvin Kamara | $8,700 | 57.7% |
| Matt Breida | $5,600 | 57.4% |
| Austin Ekeler | $7,500 | 56.9% |
| Damien Williams | $6,600 | 53.8% |
| Todd Gurley II | $7,000 | 53.4% |
| James Conner | $7,700 | 53.4% |
| Saquon Barkley | $9,200 | 52.6% |
| Adrian Peterson | $4,800 | 52.5% |
| Leonard Fournette | $6,900 | 52.0% |
| Chris Carson | $7,400 | 51.9% |
| Aaron Jones | $6,400 | 50.1% |
- Josh Jacobs played a huge workload (74.1% of snaps) in Week 1 but saw just one target and is in a projected negative script against the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite that, he appears worth every penny in head-to-heads and double ups.
- Matt Breida is another standout in the value range and projects for a big enough workload to pay off his tag, even if he does split some time with Raheem Mostert.
- Spending up at running back is rarely a bad thing to do on FanDuel. Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) just missed this cutoff (49.4%).
- Adrian Peterson has a 75th-percentile projection of just 15.2, making him a tough player to justify in tournament lineups.
High-Floor, High-Ceiling Plays
Here are the boom/bust ranks for rushers. Again, that's the rate of 3x-or-better games compared to games shy of 2x value.
| Players | Salary | Boom/Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | $5,600 | 0.80 |
| Josh Jacobs | $6,500 | 0.72 |
| Austin Ekeler | $7,500 | 0.67 |
| Alvin Kamara | $8,700 | 0.66 |
| Adrian Peterson | $4,800 | 0.60 |
| James Conner | $7,700 | 0.59 |
| Damien Williams | $6,600 | 0.54 |
| Todd Gurley II | $7,000 | 0.51 |
| Leonard Fournette | $6,900 | 0.50 |
| Saquon Barkley | $9,200 | 0.49 |
| Chris Carson | $7,400 | 0.49 |
| Duke Johnson | $6,100 | 0.48 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,500 | 0.47 |
| Aaron Jones | $6,400 | 0.45 |
- Maybe I'm too low on Peterson after all. Again, the main issue is the capped ceiling.
- James Conner grades out as one of my favorite non-elite-priced backs this week as a home favorite. Leonard Fournette also pops to me despite his status as a road underdog. Fournette played 86.2% of snaps and ran a route on 69.4% of drop backs last week, while seeing 6 total targets.
Tournament Standouts
These running backs have the highest 75th-percentile outcomes this week.
| Players | Salary | Boom/Bust Ratio |
50th Pct |
75th Pct |
90th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | $8,700 | 0.66 | 19.56 | 27.41 | 35.32 |
| Saquon Barkley | $9,200 | 0.49 | 19.03 | 27.12 | 34.08 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,500 | 0.47 | 16.73 | 25.01 | 31.46 |
| James Conner | $7,700 | 0.59 | 16.27 | 23.82 | 29.43 |
| Austin Ekeler | $7,500 | 0.67 | 16.56 | 23.32 | 29.96 |
| Dalvin Cook | $7,900 | 0.39 | 15.43 | 22.15 | 28.33 |
| Chris Carson | $7,400 | 0.49 | 15.19 | 21.94 | 27.42 |
| Josh Jacobs | $6,500 | 0.72 | 14.74 | 21.00 | 25.68 |
| Derrick Henry | $7,500 | 0.36 | 14.29 | 20.67 | 25.94 |
| Todd Gurley II | $7,000 | 0.51 | 14.78 | 20.62 | 25.59 |
| David Johnson | $7,300 | 0.39 | 14.33 | 20.34 | 27.25 |
| Leonard Fournette | $6,900 | 0.50 | 14.19 | 20.31 | 24.74 |
| Damien Williams | $6,600 | 0.54 | 14.01 | 19.81 | 25.88 |
| Matt Breida | $5,600 | 0.80 | 13.17 | 19.06 | 24.97 |
- I love Alvin Kamara ($8,700) this week, and this helps me buy in. The only player who hit 30 FanDuel points in a higher rate of games than Kamara (18.3%) was Mahomes (19.7%). Whew, buddy.
- The really high ceilings, unsurprisingly, come from the priciest backs on the slate, which should at least give us some pause when building tournament lineups centered on the cheap backs.
Bust Candidates
We'll need an arbitrary cutoff to view the bust candidates, so here are the backs projected for at least 7.0 FanDuel points (38 of them) as a median output but who are least likely to hit 1.5x value.
| Player | Salary | Less Than 1.5x |
|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | $5,900 | 61.3% |
| Royce Freeman | $5,900 | 58.8% |
| Kalen Ballage | $5,100 | 56.2% |
| Tarik Cohen | $6,100 | 55.5% |
| Justin Jackson | $6,100 | 54.5% |
| David Montgomery | $5,800 | 52.8% |
| Mike Davis | $4,900 | 52.3% |
| Carlos Hyde | $5,400 | 49.9% |
| LeSean McCoy | $5,800 | 48.5% |
| Phillip Lindsay | $6,600 | 46.2% |
- Additionally, among running backs above $7,000, Mark Ingram ($7,500) and Marlon Mack ($7,400) are most likely to fall below 1.5x value (42.5% and 42.2%, respectively.
Wide Receiver
Cash-Game Standouts
No wide receiver is projected for 2x value by numberFire this week, yet 31 are set for a median outcome that would grade out as at least 1.5x value.
| Player | Salary | 2x Value |
|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | $7,700 | 51.5% |
| Sammy Watkins | $7,400 | 49.4% |
| Tyrell Williams | $5,900 | 49.3% |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,300 | 48.4% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $8,100 | 48.3% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $5,500 | 47.1% |
| Julian Edelman | $7,100 | 46.5% |
| Davante Adams | $8,200 | 46.2% |
| Michael Thomas | $8,500 | 46.0% |
| Kenny Golladay | $6,600 | 45.3% |
| Cole Beasley | $5,000 | 43.8% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $9,000 | 43.7% |
| Christian Kirk | $5,400 | 43.5% |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | $5,700 | 43.3% |
| Brandin Cooks | $7,000 | 43.2% |
| Adam Thielen | $7,300 | 42.5% |
| Josh Gordon | $6,300 | 41.3% |
| Amari Cooper | $7,800 | 41.1% |
| Dede Westbrook | $5,900 | 40.3% |
| Robert Woods | $7,300 | 40.2% |
- As I discussed on this week's Heat Check podcast, Keenan Allen is possibly the best wide receiver play on the board with the Los Angeles Chargers' injuries and his high target share (30.3% in Week 1).
- Sammy Watkins also should see a high target floor without Tyreek Hill, and the simulations find his salary to be fair.
- If spending up at running back, we have some options below $6,000 to target: Tyrell Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, Cole Beasley, and Christian Kirk.
High-Floor, High-Ceiling
For receivers, I think looking at 3x games compared to 1.5x games makes more sense than a 2x value cutoff for a bust. Again, 1.5x value should rank around 30th for the week based on numberFire's median projections.
| Player | Salary | Boom/Bust Ratio | 3x Value | Less Than 1.5x |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | $7,700 | 0.68 | 25.0% | 37.0% |
| Sammy Watkins | $7,400 | 0.64 | 22.4% | 34.9% |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,300 | 0.58 | 22.4% | 38.6% |
| Michael Thomas | $8,500 | 0.56 | 21.3% | 37.7% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $5,500 | 0.55 | 22.2% | 40.6% |
| Tyrell Williams | $5,900 | 0.54 | 20.6% | 38.4% |
| Julian Edelman | $7,100 | 0.51 | 20.2% | 39.4% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $8,100 | 0.51 | 19.7% | 39.0% |
| Davante Adams | $8,200 | 0.50 | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Kenny Golladay | $6,600 | 0.49 | 20.3% | 41.5% |
| Christian Kirk | $5,400 | 0.48 | 21.0% | 44.2% |
| Cole Beasley | $5,000 | 0.47 | 19.4% | 41.7% |
| Dede Westbrook | $5,900 | 0.43 | 19.4% | 45.2% |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | $5,700 | 0.41 | 17.1% | 42.0% |
| Brandin Cooks | $7,000 | 0.40 | 16.5% | 41.3% |
| Adam Thielen | $7,300 | 0.40 | 16.7% | 42.1% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $9,000 | 0.37 | 14.5% | 39.1% |
| Mecole Hardman | $4,700 | 0.36 | 16.5% | 46.0% |
| Amari Cooper | $7,800 | 0.35 | 14.7% | 42.4% |
| Stefon Diggs | $6,900 | 0.33 | 14.3% | 43.3% |
- Tyler Boyd's price drop to $6,300 is probably overstated after seeing 11 targets in Week 1.
- I love Julian Edelman in a matchup with the Miami Dolphins, who allowed 119 yards and 3 touchdowns to the slot in Week 1, according to Pro Football Focus.
Tournament Standouts
The rub always comes when seeking projectable, realistic ceilings for wide receivers. The expensive players with the heaviest volume always land at the top of the list in this regard.
| Player | Salary | Boom/Bust Ratio | 50th Percentile | 75th Percentile | 90th Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | $8,500 | 0.39 | 16.08 | 24.13 | 31.48 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $9,000 | 0.26 | 16.20 | 23.59 | 29.41 |
| Keenan Allen | $7,700 | 0.52 | 15.89 | 23.07 | 29.54 |
| Davante Adams | $8,200 | 0.37 | 15.31 | 22.79 | 29.16 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $8,100 | 0.38 | 15.72 | 22.62 | 28.69 |
| Sammy Watkins | $7,400 | 0.44 | 14.69 | 21.62 | 27.35 |
| Amari Cooper | $7,800 | 0.25 | 13.28 | 20.22 | 25.36 |
| Julian Edelman | $7,100 | 0.38 | 13.39 | 19.67 | 25.82 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,300 | 0.29 | 12.80 | 18.91 | 24.37 |
| Robert Woods | $7,300 | 0.24 | 11.92 | 18.64 | 23.93 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $7,600 | 0.20 | 12.79 | 18.58 | 23.67 |
| Brandin Cooks | $7,000 | 0.29 | 12.50 | 18.38 | 23.35 |
| Kenny Golladay | $6,600 | 0.37 | 12.14 | 18.12 | 23.79 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,300 | 0.43 | 12.15 | 18.04 | 24.30 |
| Antonio Brown | $7,800 | 0.14 | 11.53 | 17.94 | 23.18 |
| Stefon Diggs | $6,900 | 0.24 | 11.55 | 17.13 | 22.56 |
| Allen Robinson II | $7,200 | 0.17 | 11.66 | 17.10 | 21.81 |
| Cooper Kupp | $6,800 | 0.24 | 11.10 | 17.10 | 21.96 |
| Tyrell Williams | $5,900 | 0.41 | 11.76 | 16.71 | 21.40 |
| Dede Westbrook | $5,900 | 0.32 | 10.04 | 15.70 | 21.62 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $5,500 | 0.42 | 10.37 | 15.58 | 20.93 |
| Josh Gordon | $6,300 | 0.22 | 10.91 | 15.50 | 19.80 |
| John Ross III | $6,400 | 0.19 | 10.54 | 15.31 | 19.86 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,700 | 0.11 | 10.73 | 15.11 | 19.22 |
| Christian Kirk | $5,400 | 0.37 | 9.46 | 15.06 | 20.27 |
- As you can see, only two wideouts priced below $7,000 have a 75th-percentile outcome of at least 18.0 points: Tyler Boyd and Kenny Golladay.
Bust Candidates
Out of 51 wideouts with at least a 7.0-fantasy-point median projection, these are the most likely to fall below 1.5x value.
| Player | Salary | Less Than 1.5x |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | $6,100 | 58.2% |
| Randall Cobb | $5,500 | 56.8% |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $5,400 | 56.0% |
| Marquise Goodwin | $5,200 | 55.6% |
| Donte Moncrief | $5,400 | 54.7% |
| Marquise Brown | $5,700 | 54.5% |
| Albert Wilson | $4,900 | 52.8% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,600 | 52.1% |
| Chris Conley | $5,100 | 52.1% |
| Willie Snead IV | $5,000 | 51.8% |
| Sterling Shepard | $6,000 | 51.7% |
| Danny Amendola | $5,400 | 51.4% |
| DK Metcalf | $6,100 | 51.3% |
| Antonio Brown | $7,800 | 50.9% |
| Corey Davis | $5,700 | 50.4% |
| Trey Quinn | $5,100 | 50.0% |
| Michael Gallup | $6,200 | 50.0% |
Tight End
Cash-Game Standouts
Four tight ends project for at least a 1.5x value threshold on numberFire because tight end is just not a high-value position, but we'll still dig into the best 2x value projections.
| Player | Salary | 2x Value |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $8,000 | 49.5% |
| George Kittle | $7,100 | 49.2% |
| Darren Waller | $5,400 | 45.7% |
| Evan Engram | $6,400 | 43.3% |
| Delanie Walker | $5,900 | 37.4% |
| Mark Andrews | $6,100 | 36.5% |
| Tyler Eifert | $4,900 | 30.7% |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,000 | 30.0% |
| Jared Cook | $6,000 | 29.6% |
- There are four primary tight end plays this week: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Evan Engram, and Darren Waller. The first two don't need much justification. Engram just saw 14 targets, and Sterling Shepard is in concussion protocol, and Waller played 100% of snaps last week and is in a possible shootout.
High-Floor, High-Ceiling Plays
I'll tweak the boom/bust cutoffs to 2x value versus 1.5x value to account for how awful wonky tight ends are in daily fantasy football.
| Player | Salary | Boom/Bust Ratio |
2x Value |
Less Than 1.5x |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | $7,100 | 1.38 | 49.2% | 35.7% |
| Travis Kelce | $8,000 | 1.35 | 49.5% | 36.6% |
| Darren Waller | $5,400 | 1.13 | 45.7% | 40.3% |
| Evan Engram | $6,400 | 1.07 | 43.3% | 40.6% |
| Mark Andrews | $6,100 | 0.80 | 36.5% | 45.9% |
| Delanie Walker | $5,900 | 0.78 | 37.4% | 48.0% |
| Tyler Eifert | $4,900 | 0.55 | 30.7% | 55.5% |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,000 | 0.55 | 30.0% | 54.3% |
| Jared Cook | $6,000 | 0.53 | 29.6% | 56.1% |
- It's the same list. High floors are elusive among tight ends. Even though the simulations like Tyler Eifert well enough, he likely won't be in my player pool this week.
Tournament Standouts
| Player | Salary | Boom/Bust Ratio |
50th Pct |
75th Pct |
90th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $8,000 | 1.35 | 15.88 | 23.45 | 30.36 |
| George Kittle | $7,100 | 1.38 | 14.07 | 19.81 | 24.99 |
| Evan Engram | $6,400 | 1.07 | 11.52 | 16.46 | 21.72 |
| Darren Waller | $5,400 | 1.13 | 9.84 | 15.56 | 20.53 |
| Delanie Walker | $5,900 | 0.78 | 9.13 | 14.91 | 19.20 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,100 | 0.80 | 9.67 | 14.17 | 18.87 |
| Jared Cook | $6,000 | 0.53 | 8.24 | 12.96 | 17.64 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,000 | 0.55 | 8.38 | 12.95 | 17.09 |
| Vance McDonald | $5,600 | 0.47 | 7.36 | 11.77 | 15.54 |
| Tyler Eifert | $4,900 | 0.55 | 6.56 | 10.92 | 14.70 |
| Jimmy Graham | $5,400 | 0.43 | 6.69 | 10.89 | 15.61 |
| Jordan Reed | $5,300 | 0.45 | 6.91 | 10.80 | 14.88 |
| Kyle Rudolph | $4,900 | 0.49 | 6.02 | 10.27 | 14.04 |
| Eric Ebron | $5,700 | 0.28 | 5.85 | 10.03 | 13.77 |
- These are the 14 tight ends with a 75th-percentile projection of at least 10 points, though there's a lot of bust potential near the bottom of the list, as well.
Bust Candidates
Basically everyone is a bust candidate at tight end. Of the 18 tight ends projected for at least 5 FanDuel points, 12 fell below 1.5x value in at least half of the simulations. The six who didn't are: Kittle, Kelce, Waller, Engram, Mark Andrews, and Delanie Walker.
