Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 15
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and quarterbacks , this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
25+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,300 | 21.5 | 33.2% | 1.35 | 32.8% | 27.1 |
| Deshaun Watson | $8,200 | 21.0 | 30.9% | 1.13 | 29.2% | 26.1 |
| Russell Wilson | $8,100 | 20.2 | 30.0% | 1.02 | 27.4% | 25.6 |
| Jameis Winston | $8,200 | 20.0 | 26.3% | 0.79 | 24.8% | 25.0 |
| Dak Prescott | $7,800 | 19.7 | 30.1% | 0.92 | 23.6% | 24.6 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $7,600 | 19.7 | 35.5% | 1.35 | 24.7% | 25.0 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,600 | 19.5 | 31.2% | 1.01 | 21.3% | 24.1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $8,400 | 19.0 | 19.9% | 0.51 | 20.7% | 24.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | $7,700 | 18.2 | 25.5% | 0.74 | 19.4% | 23.2 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | $7,300 | 17.7 | 29.6% | 0.90 | 16.4% | 22.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $8,000 | 17.5 | 17.2% | 0.39 | 13.6% | 22.0 |
| Jared Goff | $7,800 | 17.3 | 21.2% | 0.52 | 15.2% | 22.3 |
| Tom Brady | $7,600 | 17.2 | 22.8% | 0.62 | 14.6% | 22.3 |
| Eli Manning | $6,800 | 17.0 | 33.9% | 1.10 | 14.6% | 22.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,900 | 16.9 | 18.3% | 0.42 | 13.5% | 21.9 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,700 | 16.9 | 19.5% | 0.43 | 12.7% | 22.0 |
| Derek Carr | $7,300 | 16.8 | 27.5% | 0.76 | 15.0% | 22.4 |
| Philip Rivers | $7,400 | 16.3 | 23.6% | 0.54 | 12.4% | 21.8 |
| Gardner Minshew II | $6,900 | 16.1 | 26.5% | 0.68 | 11.0% | 21.1 |
| Matt Ryan | $7,600 | 16.1 | 18.5% | 0.40 | 12.7% | 21.3 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | $7,500 | 16.0 | 19.3% | 0.44 | 11.2% | 21.2 |
| Kyle Allen | $7,000 | 15.7 | 20.6% | 0.49 | 9.9% | 20.1 |
| David Blough | $7,300 | 15.5 | 21.0% | 0.47 | 12.1% | 20.7 |
| Drew Lock | $7,400 | 14.5 | 15.2% | 0.31 | 7.9% | 19.5 |
| Andy Dalton | $6,500 | 13.3 | 19.5% | 0.39 | 5.7% | 18.3 |
| Dwayne Haskins Jr. | $6,600 | 12.0 | 14.7% | 0.27 | 3.2% | 17.2 |
Cash-Game Standouts
The top two passers in boom-to-bust ratio are Ryan Tannehill ($7,600) and Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) by a pretty solid margin. Mahomes is my preferred cash-game quarterback for the week in a home matchup against the Denver Broncos. Tannehill's efficiency is great, but he's still producing on limited volume and has more concern, though the projections weigh their floors and ceilings similarly when adjusted for salary. Deshaun Watson ($8,200) and Eli Manning ($6,800) also rank with solid cash-game ratings, and Russell Wilson ($8,100) and Kyler Murray ($7,600) are also in the conversation.
Tournament Standouts
Those six passers also have the best tournament values (using FanDuel points in a 75th-percentile game). The most likely quarterbacks to go over 25 FanDuel points are Mahomes, Watson, Wilson, Jameis Winston ($8,200), and Tannehill. Tannehill is shaping up to be popular -- for good reason.
Jimmy Garoppolo ($8,400) and Dak Prescott ($7,800) still have good ceilings and will likely be low-owned options.
Running Back
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
20+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $10,400 | 22.5 | 15.7% | 0.37 | 59.5% | 28.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | $8,300 | 18.7 | 26.9% | 0.67 | 45.5% | 25.4 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,700 | 17.7 | 24.6% | 0.60 | 37.8% | 22.9 |
| Derrick Henry | $9,400 | 17.5 | 11.0% | 0.20 | 39.3% | 23.3 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,500 | 17.4 | 15.9% | 0.32 | 36.3% | 23.0 |
| Chris Carson | $7,400 | 17.1 | 29.3% | 0.73 | 39.1% | 23.3 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,500 | 17.0 | 14.9% | 0.30 | 36.6% | 22.7 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,800 | 14.7 | 13.6% | 0.25 | 22.8% | 19.6 |
| Nick Chubb | $8,000 | 14.7 | 11.4% | 0.20 | 25.0% | 20.0 |
| Todd Gurley II | $7,600 | 14.5 | 17.5% | 0.35 | 27.9% | 20.6 |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,700 | 13.7 | 13.1% | 0.23 | 22.9% | 19.4 |
| Melvin Gordon III | $7,400 | 13.7 | 10.6% | 0.18 | 18.2% | 18.1 |
| Austin Ekeler | $7,200 | 12.9 | 11.6% | 0.20 | 15.6% | 18.0 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,700 | 12.6 | 14.7% | 0.28 | 14.9% | 17.6 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $6,400 | 12.6 | 19.0% | 0.38 | 16.6% | 17.7 |
| Kenyan Drake | $6,200 | 12.2 | 17.6% | 0.34 | 12.9% | 17.1 |
| Miles Sanders | $6,800 | 12.1 | 10.9% | 0.19 | 12.8% | 16.9 |
| Patrick Laird | $5,500 | 12.1 | 25.7% | 0.59 | 11.8% | 16.7 |
| Devonta Freeman | $6,100 | 11.7 | 15.3% | 0.28 | 9.7% | 15.8 |
| James White | $6,800 | 11.6 | 10.1% | 0.16 | 10.9% | 15.7 |
| Raheem Mostert | $7,500 | 11.6 | 5.1% | 0.07 | 9.8% | 15.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | $6,700 | 11.6 | 8.0% | 0.14 | 8.5% | 15.8 |
| David Montgomery | $6,400 | 10.9 | 11.9% | 0.20 | 9.6% | 15.7 |
| Adrian Peterson | $6,300 | 10.1 | 7.5% | 0.11 | 5.5% | 14.3 |
| LeSean McCoy | $6,100 | 9.4 | 5.4% | 0.08 | 2.9% | 13.2 |
| Bo Scarbrough | $5,900 | 9.4 | 6.9% | 0.10 | 2.7% | 12.8 |
| Sony Michel | $6,100 | 9.2 | 7.7% | 0.12 | 4.6% | 13.7 |
| Carlos Hyde | $6,000 | 9.2 | 7.2% | 0.11 | 3.8% | 13.3 |
| Ronald Jones II | $5,800 | 9.1 | 6.5% | 0.09 | 2.0% | 12.5 |
| Duke Johnson | $5,700 | 9.1 | 6.4% | 0.10 | 1.7% | 13.0 |
| Jamaal Williams | $5,400 | 9.1 | 10.0% | 0.17 | 2.8% | 13.1 |
| Tarik Cohen | $5,700 | 8.3 | 4.8% | 0.07 | 1.5% | 11.6 |
| Royce Freeman | $5,300 | 7.5 | 5.7% | 0.08 | 0.8% | 11.1 |
| Chris Thompson | $5,200 | 7.4 | 6.9% | 0.10 | 1.1% | 11.0 |
| DeAndre Washington | $6,300 | 7.0 | 0.7% | 0.01 | 0.5% | 10.0 |
| Matt Breida | $5,600 | 6.9 | 4.9% | 0.06 | 1.8% | 10.8 |
| Peyton Barber | $5,700 | 6.8 | 3.2% | 0.04 | 0.9% | 10.6 |
| J.D. McKissic | $4,900 | 6.5 | 7.5% | 0.11 | 0.9% | 10.3 |
| Jalen Richard | $5,500 | 6.2 | 1.4% | 0.02 | 0.4% | 9.3 |
| Damien Williams | $6,000 | 6.1 | 0.6% | 0.01 | 0.1% | 9.6 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Chris Carson ($7,400) against the Carolina Panthers' terrible rush defense and Saquon Barkley ($8,300) against the Miami Dolphins have the best cash-game profiles, and Leonard Fournette ($7,700) and Patrick Laird ($5,500) are the next tier.
Phillip Lindsay ($6,400), Christian McCaffrey ($10,400), Todd Gurley ($7,600), Kenyan Drake ($6,200), and Dalvin Cook ($8,500) are also in the conversation. Frankly, this week, I'm likely to lock in Carson and Barkley and let salary dictate the third back for a single lineup.
Tournament Standouts
Carson, Barkley, Laird, Fournette, Lindsay, Drake, McCaffrey, Cook, Gurley, and Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) own the 10 best tournament values. It's a pretty concentrated week in terms of the best running back plays.
Derrick Henry ($9,400), Nick Chubb ($8,000), and Aaron Jones ($7,800) all have ceilings above or near 20 points and could get lost in the shuffle, particularly Chubb and Jones.
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | $8,600 | 16.5 | 43.8% | 1.27 | 54.3% | 21.3 |
| Chris Godwin | $8,400 | 16.1 | 43.5% | 1.38 | 55.6% | 20.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | $7,900 | 14.7 | 45.9% | 1.32 | 51.0% | 20.3 |
| Davante Adams | $7,800 | 14.2 | 43.9% | 1.32 | 48.2% | 19.2 |
| Kenny Golladay | $7,900 | 14.1 | 40.7% | 1.07 | 44.6% | 19.0 |
| Jarvis Landry | $7,400 | 13.6 | 40.9% | 1.17 | 40.2% | 18.1 |
| Julian Edelman | $7,700 | 13.5 | 37.9% | 0.99 | 40.4% | 17.7 |
| Julio Jones | $7,500 | 13.1 | 41.9% | 1.14 | 41.9% | 18.3 |
| Robert Woods | $7,500 | 13.1 | 39.5% | 1.02 | 39.5% | 17.9 |
| DJ Moore | $6,900 | 13.0 | 44.3% | 1.35 | 38.5% | 17.3 |
| Amari Cooper | $7,700 | 12.6 | 36.5% | 0.84 | 39.0% | 17.5 |
| Keenan Allen | $6,800 | 12.5 | 43.4% | 1.18 | 35.1% | 16.9 |
| Cooper Kupp | $7,600 | 12.5 | 35.2% | 0.81 | 36.3% | 17.3 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | $7,200 | 12.4 | 40.3% | 0.97 | 37.1% | 17.2 |
| Allen Robinson II | $8,000 | 12.1 | 24.1% | 0.46 | 29.6% | 15.7 |
| Courtland Sutton | $7,000 | 11.9 | 36.1% | 0.88 | 30.8% | 16.2 |
| Christian Kirk | $6,100 | 11.7 | 49.7% | 1.53 | 31.1% | 15.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | $7,700 | 11.6 | 27.4% | 0.57 | 29.5% | 15.8 |
| A.J. Brown | $6,200 | 11.4 | 45.8% | 1.28 | 31.2% | 15.9 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $6,900 | 11.2 | 31.2% | 0.72 | 24.5% | 14.8 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,900 | 11.1 | 31.9% | 0.67 | 25.4% | 15.0 |
| DeVante Parker | $6,900 | 11.0 | 25.3% | 0.54 | 17.2% | 13.9 |
| Sterling Shepard | $5,900 | 10.9 | 41.7% | 1.09 | 25.9% | 15.2 |
| Michael Gallup | $6,800 | 10.9 | 32.1% | 0.70 | 24.6% | 14.9 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,300 | 10.7 | 28.0% | 0.58 | 26.3% | 15.3 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,300 | 10.7 | 37.8% | 0.89 | 23.8% | 14.8 |
| DK Metcalf | $6,300 | 10.4 | 35.6% | 0.87 | 21.5% | 14.4 |
| Deebo Samuel | $6,500 | 10.3 | 32.0% | 0.77 | 20.2% | 14.1 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,000 | 10.0 | 38.3% | 0.88 | 20.1% | 14.2 |
| Darius Slayton | $6,300 | 10.0 | 31.6% | 0.69 | 17.5% | 13.8 |
| Dede Westbrook | $6,000 | 9.9 | 38.9% | 0.89 | 19.2% | 14.0 |
| Golden Tate | $6,300 | 9.9 | 33.1% | 0.71 | 19.6% | 14.1 |
| Danny Amendola | $5,400 | 9.6 | 39.0% | 0.95 | 15.8% | 12.9 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $5,700 | 9.2 | 34.8% | 0.76 | 13.2% | 12.8 |
| Mike Williams | $6,200 | 9.2 | 28.6% | 0.57 | 17.2% | 13.0 |
| Anthony Miller | $6,300 | 9.0 | 24.5% | 0.47 | 11.2% | 12.5 |
| Tyrell Williams | $5,600 | 9.0 | 37.9% | 0.80 | 15.1% | 12.9 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,600 | 9.0 | 35.4% | 0.77 | 10.8% | 12.4 |
| Sammy Watkins | $5,400 | 8.7 | 34.5% | 0.75 | 13.8% | 12.7 |
| Allen Hurns | $5,800 | 8.6 | 30.4% | 0.61 | 13.7% | 12.3 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $6,300 | 8.5 | 18.0% | 0.31 | 8.2% | 11.3 |
| Chris Conley | $5,100 | 8.4 | 36.8% | 0.81 | 10.5% | 11.9 |
| Randall Cobb | $5,400 | 8.2 | 31.8% | 0.66 | 9.5% | 11.7 |
| Corey Davis | $5,000 | 7.9 | 35.2% | 0.75 | 9.4% | 11.5 |
| Breshad Perriman | $6,400 | 7.7 | 19.0% | 0.31 | 9.4% | 11.7 |
| Will Fuller V | $6,600 | 7.5 | 13.2% | 0.20 | 6.7% | 11.0 |
| Kenny Stills | $5,000 | 7.5 | 30.6% | 0.61 | 8.3% | 10.9 |
| John Ross III | $4,900 | 7.2 | 29.0% | 0.55 | 6.9% | 10.6 |
| Russell Gage | $5,400 | 7.0 | 22.3% | 0.39 | 5.2% | 10.4 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Christian Kirk ($6,100) is that guy this week. He has the best floor/ceiling projection. After Kirk, it's a flat drop off: Chris Godwin ($8,400), D.J. Moore ($6,900), Tyreek Hill ($7,900), Davante Adams ($7,800), A.J. Brown ($6,200), and DeAndre Hopkins ($8,600).
The cash-game options below $6,500 are a bit scarce, though we have Kirk and Brown. Sterling Shepard ($5,900) also rates out well enough for consideration. Punt plays with good cash-game profiles are Danny Amendola ($5,400), Chris Conley ($5,100), and Tyrell Williams ($5,600).
Tournament Standouts
The top tournament values this week belong to Kirk, Hill, Shepard, Brown, Moore, Keenan Allen ($6,800), Hopkins, Adams, Godwin, and Jarvis Landry ($7,400). Kenny Golladay ($7,900), Julio Jones ($7,500), and Amari Cooper ($7,700) still have high ceilings and should be lesser owned than their other expensive counterparts.
Cheaper plays other than Kirk, Brown, and Shepard who have solid ceilings are Tyler Boyd ($6,300), D.K. Metcalf ($6,300), Terry McLaurin ($6,000), Deebo Samuel ($6,500), Golden Tate ($6,300), and Dede Westbrook ($6,000).
Tight End
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $7,300 | 13.8 | 44.1% | 1.24 | 41.9% | 18.5 |
| George Kittle | $7,200 | 13.2 | 45.2% | 1.27 | 42.6% | 18.4 |
| Darren Waller | $6,200 | 12.1 | 48.2% | 1.47 | 32.4% | 16.5 |
| Zach Ertz | $6,700 | 12.1 | 40.4% | 1.11 | 31.2% | 16.2 |
| Austin Hooper | $6,200 | 10.1 | 33.9% | 0.75 | 20.5% | 14.1 |
| Hunter Henry | $6,400 | 10.1 | 31.2% | 0.68 | 17.6% | 13.7 |
| Tyler Higbee | $5,700 | 8.6 | 27.6% | 0.57 | 8.0% | 11.7 |
| Mike Gesicki | $5,200 | 8.0 | 35.3% | 0.76 | 11.8% | 12.1 |
| Dallas Goedert | $5,700 | 7.5 | 23.2% | 0.41 | 6.8% | 11.1 |
| O.J. Howard | $5,700 | 7.5 | 21.2% | 0.36 | 7.0% | 10.8 |
| Jacob Hollister | $5,700 | 7.3 | 21.4% | 0.37 | 7.0% | 10.7 |
| Evan Engram | $6,400 | 7.3 | 11.8% | 0.17 | 4.4% | 10.3 |
| Jason Witten | $5,600 | 7.0 | 17.3% | 0.28 | 3.6% | 10.1 |
| Noah Fant | $5,700 | 6.7 | 13.4% | 0.20 | 2.4% | 9.3 |
| David Njoku | $5,500 | 6.5 | 18.0% | 0.28 | 3.2% | 9.9 |
| Jonnu Smith | $4,900 | 6.4 | 22.1% | 0.39 | 3.7% | 9.5 |
| Greg Olsen | $4,900 | 6.3 | 17.0% | 0.28 | 1.8% | 8.8 |
| Kyle Rudolph | $4,700 | 5.6 | 20.3% | 0.33 | 1.8% | 8.8 |
| Darren Fells | $4,700 | 5.4 | 19.1% | 0.29 | 1.4% | 8.5 |
| Cameron Brate | $5,200 | 5.0 | 10.6% | 0.14 | 1.0% | 7.8 |
Cash-Game Standouts
It's the usual suspects: Darren Waller ($6,200), George Kittle ($7,200), Travis Kelce ($7,300), and Zach Ertz ($6,700) with Waller owning the best cash-game profile of the four. Mike Gesicki ($5,200) rates out as the best cheaper cash-game option.
Tournament Standouts
The only tight ends with better than a 10% chance to hit 15 FanDuel points: Kittle (42.6%), Kelce (41.9%), Waller (32.4%), Ertz (31.2%), Austin Hooper ($6,200; 20.5%), Hunter Henry ($6,400; 17.6%), and Gesicki (11.8%).
