Betting Tom Brady’s Player Props With the Buccaneers
The best time to enter a market for betting is when the lines are fresh. And things don't get fresher than Tom Brady on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
If you are so inclined, you can now bet on various props at FanDuel Sportsbook for how Brady will perform in his first year separated from Bill Belichick. They've got yardage, touchdown, and interception props all posted... along with one about which team will win more games this upcoming year.
Lucky for us, numberFire's JJ Zachariason just finished his season-long player projections last night. Let's check those out and see if we can squeeze some value out of these numbers.
Individual Props
To make things simple, let's just compare where JJ's projections have Brady compared to the numbers at FanDuel Sportsbook. For both the yardage and touchdown props, there's -110 each way. For the interception prop, it's -130 on the over and +106 on the under.
| Brady in 2020 | Passing Yardage | Passing TDs | Passing INTs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel Sportsbook | 4,399.5 | 29.5 | 10.5 |
| JJ's Projections | 4,476.8 | 29.9 | 10.2 |
Things are pretty tight here, which is a good endorsement of JJ's projections. It's just tougher to find solid betting value as a result.
The number that stands out most here is the interception column. With +106 on the under, and JJ's numbers pushing us that direction, there's plenty to like there.
It also helps with player props in general that each player has multiple paths to hitting an under. If they have their roles reduced or miss games, the sample in which they can drive that number up declines. Brady ain't Jameis Winston, which also plays well here.
If you want to side with an over, the yardage prop is easily your preferred route for doing so. Even if Bruce Arians does change his system to better suit Brady's strengths, it's unlikely he suddenly becomes a ground-and-pound enthusiast. The Bucs ranked third in early-down pass rate in the first halves of games last year, per Sharp Football Stats. When they were in control of the script, they were slinging it. We should expect the same now that Brady's steering the ship.
That's what stands out on the player side. But the most advantageous number seems to be pitting Brady versus Belichick.
Bucs vs. Pats
In addition to the player props, you can also bet which team will have more wins this year: Brady's Bucs or Belichick's New England Patriots.
As things stand right now, the Bucs are actually +130 to win more games than the Patriots. Given each team's quarterback situation, that number should make you drool.
We don't yet know who will quarterback the Patriots in the fall. It could be someone like Cam Newton or Andy Dalton (or -- perhaps the most entertaining route -- Jameis himself), and those guys are fine. But there's still a possibility they decide to stick with Jarrett Stidham, and the skill-position talent there is sorely lacking. No matter who takes over the reins of this offense, it's hard to see them getting this puppy to hum.
The Bucs also weren't as bad as perception last year, especially on defense. Once you adjust for schedule, the Bucs actually ranked fourth in numberFire's defensive metrics thanks to a strong pass rush and an elite run-stuffing unit. With both Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul back, those marks should continue to be strong.
With the player props, you can definitely find a slight edge in betting the under on the interception prop, and the over on the yardage prop is at least intriguing. But of all the numbers we've got on Brady's new team right now, betting him to push the Bucs ahead of the Pats in the standings seems to be the optimal route.
