NFL Betting Guide: Week 1
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models (which finished 2019 ranked fifth in overall accuracy, according to BettingPros) as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars +7.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Betting on a Jacksonville Jaguars that lost its best playmaker in Leonard Fournette may not be the first thing that springs to mind, but putting your money on them to cover the 7.5-point spread is one of our models' top plays in Week 1.
The Jaguars will host their division rival, the Indianapolis Colts, who will be starting long-time Charger Philip Rivers on Sunday. Rivers has gone 3-4 in away games in Week 1 over his career.
Those willing to place their money on black, teal, and gold in lieu of blue and white have done well over the past few years. In their past 10 matchups against the Colts, the Jaguars have gone 8-1-1 against the spread (ATS), covering by an average of 8.6 points.
The Jaguars have gone 6-4 ATS in their past 10 Week 1 games as underdogs. The Colts have gone 3-7 ATS in their past 10 Week 1 games as favorites, failing to cover by an average of 3.9 points.
If you are betting on the Jaguars to cover, you'll clearly be in the minority this week. As of right now, 83% of bets and 87% of the money are being placed on the Colts to cover. Our models, on the other hand, give the Jaguars a 62.4% chance of covering.
With an expected return of $119.03 for every $100 wagered, we mark a bet on the Jags as a three-star play.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants
Under 46.5: 2-Star Rating out of 5
Given how much emphasis was placed on the New England Patriots' defense last season, you'd think that they would have finished as the top defense in fantasy leagues. That moniker, however, went to none other than the Steel Curtain.
The 2019 Pittsburgh Steelers looked nothing like defensive stalwarts to start last year. They gave up 24 or more points in four of their first five games, leading to a 1-4 start. From that point on, the team would go on to give up 17 or fewer points in all but three of their remaining games, finishing the season at an improbable 8-8.
The under was 3-12-1 in the Steelers' games last year and 1-9-1 in their last 11. Over their last seven games of the season, there were no more than 40 combined points scored.
This is just the fourth meeting between the Steelers and New York Giants since the 2008 season. The under has hit in each of those meetings, which have seen an average of just 39.0 points scored.
The under is 1-3 in the Steelers' past four Monday night games. The under has hit in just 6 of the Steelers' past 22 games as more than 5.0-point favorites. The under has hit in each of the past three games that the Giants were more than 5.0-point underdogs.The Giants have averaged just 14.7 points in those games.
numberFire's models project the Steelers and Giants to combine for 42.7 points this week. We give the under a 58.8% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a two-star play.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Vikings -2.5: 2-Star Rating out of 5
Week 1 has some intriguing matchups, perhaps none with as much history as the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. The NFC North division rivals finished first and second last season, and they start this year 8th and 11th, respectively, in numberFire's Power Rankings.
The Packers are 2-4 straight up (SU) and ATS in their past six Week 1 games as underdogs. The Vikings are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 Week 1 games as favorites.
Minnesota went 6-1 SU last season as home favorites, with each of their wins coming by at least four points. They've averaged just one loss per year as home favorites over the past six seasons.
The Vikings were 7-0 SU and 4-2-1 ATS last season as favorites in games with totals set below 45 points. The Packers are 1-6-1 in their past eight September games as underdogs.
Our models like the Vikings to hold on for a 4.6-point victory this week. We give them a 60.6% chance of covering the 2.5-point spread and mark the bet as a two-star play.
