Same Game Parlay Betting Guide: Broncos at Jets
Betting on NFL games doesn't always lead to big scores. Head-to-heads and point spreads aren't quite the same as betting long-shots.
One way to hit it big on an NFL game is through the Single-Game Parlay offerings on FanDuel Sportsbook. You can rack up a parlay on each matchup and get that juicy multiplier.
Through simulations and numberFire's game and player projections, I aimed to uncover some positive value Single-Game Parlays to target.
Parlay Option 1
Leg 1: Denver Broncos Moneyline
Leg 2: Melvin Gordon Over 62.5 Rushing Yards
Leg 3: Frank Gore Under 52.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: +320
Our algorithm likes the Broncos to win this game outright 52.1% of the time despite playing with Brett Rypien under center. Rypien threw just nine passes last week. He completed 8 but totaled 44 air yards and didn't throw any passes farther than 14 yards downfield. The New York Jets are just 30th in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back allowed and 29th in Passing Success Rate.
There's really no reason to anticipate significant opposition from the Jets' defense, based on what we've seen through three games, and Rypien was viable in very limited time in Week 3. Via oddsFire, 67% of the money is coming in on Denver, as well.
Gordon himself is projected for 64.2 yards as a baseline, and if we're playing the angle of a Broncos win, we should like him to clock the over. Since 2016, winning running backs outperform their rushing yardage projection by around 29%.
Conversely, losing backs are about 9% below expectation, and stud offensive lineman and first-round pick Mekhi Becton is questionable to play.
Parlay Option 2
Leg 1: Jerry Jeudy to Score
Leg 2: Jamison Crowder to Score
Odds: +1055
This is a strict early-season regression play. Jeudy has 173 yards but no touchdowns to his name yet, and even though Rypien threw just nine passes last week, three of them went to Jeudy. He caught 2 for 24 yards. Though Rypien didn't sling it deep, he threw one 14 yards and another 13 yards downfield to Jeudy. That could lead to a big play or two against the Jets, who are 29th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers through three games.
Crowder has played just one game but put up one of the best workloads in football in it. Crowder tallied 115 yards on 13 targets (a 37.1% target share). He ran every pass route in the opener, via ProFootballFocus. Along with that workload, Crowder had three downfield targets and a red zone target. That's high-leverage work, and the Broncos are just 25th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers.
