Fantasy Football FAB Report: Week 10

Free agent budget waivers (FAB) are, without a doubt, the way to go. While some leagues are still sticking to the ancient ways of rolling list waivers (yuck) or waiver priority determined by the reverse order of standings (barf), many of the savvy ones are moving over to budgets. It makes sense -- why not give every manager an equal shot at every player? Do you really want to reward people for sucking at fantasy? Okay...rant over.

Every Tuesday evening, I (along with most managers in leagues with FAB waivers) spend countless hours trying to figure out how much to offer for the week's top available players -- which so happens to be exactly what this piece will cover.

Instead of telling you that you should be adding Alvin Kamara or Patrick Mahomes, this piece will focus strictly on players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of Yahoo leagues.

Let's get to this week's top players and how much of my budget I'd be willing to offer to acquire them.

(The suggested offers are for 12-team, half-PPR leagues.)

Quarterback

Depending on your scoring and roster formats, how much you should spend at quarterback varies from league to league. If you're in a traditional, four-point-per-touchdown, one-quarterback league, there is rarely an occurrence where you should be spending a big chunk of your budget on the position. However, if you're in a superflex or straight-up two-quarterback league, that story changes entirely. With that in mind, let's look at this week's top streaming options.

When I refer to quarterbacks points, I'm utilizing Yahoo scoring.

The list of quarterback options with under 50% rostership for Week 10 isn't pretty, but let's delve in either way.

Drew Lock (20% rostered) - We hit with Lock last week, so let's give it another go. After entering Week 8 with just one top-20 fantasy performance in his career, Lock has been the QB7 and QB4 over his last two games -- that's an improvement. Let's be frank about one thing -- Lock has not been very good this year. Among passers with at least 100 attempts, he ranks second-worst (behind only Sam Darnold) in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. That said, when it comes to fantasy football, quantity trumps quality, and Lock is averaging 43 pass attempts and 4 rushes over his last three games. This week, he gets a Las Vegas Raiders defense that's allowed at least 23.4 fantasy points in four of their last five. They limited Baker Mayfield to just 7.8 in Week 8, but that can be chalked up to the wild wind. The Raiders rank fifth-worst in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, making this a stellar matchup.

Suggested offer: 3%

Tua Tagovailoa (24% rostered) - Two starts into his career and I'm talking about Tua as one of the top streamers of the week. Not bad. After managing a mere 93 yards on 22 attempts in Week 8, Tua bounced back in Week 9 with 248 yards, 2 scores, and an additional 35 yards on the ground. In Week 10, Tagovailoa will face a Los Angeles Chargers team that's surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal-callers. Now, the Chargers do grade out above-average in our pass-defense metric, though they've only held two quarterbacks to below 17 fantasy points this season. The rookie is worth a look this week.

Suggested offer: 1-2%

Running Back

Unlike quarterback, running back is a premier position in almost every format. For that reason, this is a position you'll want to be generous with. Of course, some backs have more value in PPR (point-per-reception) leagues than they do in standard, so be sure to keep that in mind.

This week, there are a number of backs with a roster percentage under 50% that could be playable in Week 10 (and beyond), but there's nothing close to a sure thing -- don't spend your budget like there is.

J.D. McKissic (24% rostered) - The only running back with more targets than McKissic since Week 2 is Alvin Kamara. McKissic has also seen a snap share of 49% or greater in each of his last six games. But wait...there's more! According to Rotoworld, McKissic led all running backs with 31 routes in Week 9. Alex Smith taking over for Washington is great news for McKissic, as Smith loves dumping the ball off as much as anyone. McKissic has posted double-digit half-PPR points in two of his last three games, and that's a trend that could very well continue for the rest of the season.

Suggest offer: 8-9% in PPR leagues, 4% in standard.

Duke Johnson (16% rostered) - After David Johnson suffered a concussion early in Week 9, Duke stepped in and saw 20 total opportunities (16 carries and 4 targets) while playing 81% of the team's snaps. On those touches, Duke churned out 73 total yards, 4 receptions, and a touchdown. That's not to say he was fantastic -- among backs with double-digit carries in Week 9, Duke ranked third-worst in Rushing NEP per carry. However, if David were forced to miss a game, Duke would be a top streamer for Week 10. The Houston Texans will take on the Cleveland Browns this week, and Cleveland ranks 10th-worst in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. The Browns have ceded at least 12.9 half-PPR points to a back in all but one game this season.

Suggested offer: 7-8%

Kalen Ballage (1% rostered) - Another week, another Charger running back in this column. Los Angeles has dealt with injuries at seemingly every position, and their running has proven to be no exception. Austin Ekeler is on injured reserve with a serious hamstring injury, Troymaine Pope has a concussion, and Justin Jackson suffered a knee injury on the first play of Sunday's game and did not return. Ballage filled in, garnering 15 carries and 3 targets on a 39% snap share -- he turned those into 84 total yards, 2 receptions, and a tuddy. If the aforementioned three backs were to miss the Week 10 matchup with the Miami Dolphins, Ballage would be a fill-in RB2. To date, Miami ranks fifth-worst in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, and they've ceded the 13th-most half-PPR points to running backs.

Suggested offer: 6-7%

Wayne Gallman (25% rostered) - Gallman has now recorded three straight games of at least 12.7 half-PPR points, as he's seen snap shares of 53%, 43%, and 57% with Devonta Freeman out. The issue here is that Freeman did return to practice last week, which could be a sign that his return is imminent. There is a chance that the New York Giants will realize that Freeman is not a good running back. Of the 50 backs with at least 50 carries this season, Devonta Freeman ranks ninth-worst in Rushing NEP per carry and fifth-worst in Rushing Success Rate (i.e., the percentage of carries that lead to positive NEP for a team’s offense). This is nothing new -- of the 50 backs to see at least 75 rushes last season, Freeman ranked second-worst and dead last in those categories. That said, this is the team that drafted a running back with the second overall pick. Counting on them to do the smart thing is not wise.

Suggested offer: 5%

Wide Receiver

While it may vary based on scoring (standard versus PPR), wideouts are generally valued at similar rates in most formats. However, leagues that require you to start at least three wideouts could see inflated offers at the position.

Unlike the last few weeks, the receiver position does have a few options worth dusting off the wallet for.

Jakobi Meyers (13% rostered) - Well, hello there, Mr. 40% target share! In Week 9, Meyers received a whopping 14 targets from Cam Newton and turned those into 12 receptions for 169 yards. Nice. It was the second consecutive game that Meyers had garnered exactly 40% of New England's targets and his third straight contest with a share of at least 24%. In the three games since returning to the Patriots' active roster, the 24-year-old has seen snap shares of 79%, 98%, and 99%. That'll play. The Pats have a tough matchup with the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10, which could drive Meyers' offers down a bit -- take advantage.

Suggested offer: 19-22%

Curtis Samuel (31% rostered) - I've overlooked Samuel in this piece because I thought Christian McCaffrey's impending return would render him unstartable -- I was wrong. In McCaffrey's first game back, Samuel consumed 12 opportunities (9 targets, 3 carries) and turned them into 118 scrimmage yards and a score. He's now had at least 50 total yards and a touchdown in three straight games. There are no indications that this is fluky -- Samuel has seen a snap share of 65% or greater in all but two games this season, and he's had a 20% target share in his last three games. That's in addition to him averaging 2.8 rushes per contest this season. With CMC's status in doubt after suffering a shoulder injury, Samuel can see an even larger share of opportunities in the upcoming games.

Suggested offer: 15-17%

Jalen Reagor (24% rostered) - Reagor has been active for three games this year and has seen at least four looks in each. In his return in Week 8, Reagor garnered 6 targets, turning them into 16 yards, a tuddy, and a two-point conversion. Philly is in dire need of reliable targets opposite Travis Fulgham, and they're likely to rely on Reagor quite a bit down the line. Reagor's next three matchups are against teams that are bottom-six in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, and all but one of his remaining matchups are against teams that are above league-average in fantasy points allowed to wideouts.

Suggested offer: 13-15%.

Allen Lazard (38% rostered) - I mentioned Lazard in this space last week, and with the deadline passing without the Green Bay Packers adding any receivers, he should be a priority add once again this week. Granted, the sample size is tiny, but among the 115 wideouts with at least 17 targets this season, Lazard ranks first in Reception NEP per target. And it's not as if he barely saw looks when he was active -- Lazard had at least five opportunities in each of his three games before his injury. The third-year pro had seen snap shares of 87%, 84%, and 95% in those three outings, and when a receiver is seeing those kinds of snaps on an offense that ranks second in Adjusted Passing NEP per play, you should take notice.

Suggested offer: 12-15%

Richie James (2% rostered) - With approximately half the San Francisco 49ers active roster out in Week 9 due to COVID-19 or injuries, James stepped up and dropped 184 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets while playing 89% of the team's snaps. James isn't likely to maintain a role that heavy for the foreseeable future, as Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne, and Deebo Samuel are bound to return soon, but his performance should earn him a larger role moving forward. He's worth an add for Week 10 in case any (or all) of those aforementioned wideouts can't return but don't splurge here.

Suggested offer: 6-8%

Other options: After seeing a season-high nine targets in Week 9, Tim Patrick (21% rostered) has now recorded at least five looks in five of his seven games this season, and he's also been on the field for at least 65% of snaps in every game. Patrick has now had at least 100 yards or a touchdown in four of his last five games, making him impossible to ignore going forward. I'd offer up to 8% here ... Josh Reynolds (2% rostered) hasn't seen a snap share under 72% since Week 4, and he's garnered 5, 8, and 9 looks over his last three games. With a matchup with the ever-so-generous Seattle Seahawks upcoming, Reynolds is worth an add as a streamer. I'd offer up to 5% ... Speaking of streamers -- you can do worse than Cordarrelle Patterson (5% rostered) in Week 10. Patterson could see heavy volume with David Montgomery in the concussion protocol. 3-4% should do it for the receiver-turned-running back.

Tight End

Prior to his injury, Austin Hooper (42% rostered) had garnered 23 looks in three games. Hooper should be good to go for Week 10, but don't expect that kind of volume with Nick Chubb back in the fold. A matchup with a Houston Texans team allowing the 10th-most points to the position makes him one of the week's top streamers. I wouldn't dish out more than 5-6% ... Jordan Reed (22% rostered) saw just 13 snaps in his return from injury. The hope is that the Niners' mini-bye could allow him to play a larger role in a delicious Week 10 matchup with the New Orleans Saints. I'd throw 2-3% at either him or Ross Dwelley (8% rostered) and see if it pays off ... Logan Thomas (37% rostered) didn't do much in Week 9, though he did garner his most targets (six) since Week 3. We know that Alex Smith likes targeting his tight ends, so Thomas could see an uptick in target share going forward. I'd offer up to 5% if you're desperate at the position ... Finally, Irv Smith Jr. (7% rostered) scored twice in Week 9, though he hasn't seen more than five targets in any game this season. Smith is an upside streamer who could put up a goose-egg any given week. Don't offer more than 3%.