FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 12 Monday Night (Seahawks at Eagles)
On Online Sportsbook, the Seattle Seahawks are 6.5-point road favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles. The total is set at 48.5 points, which implies a 27.50-21.00 win for the Seahawks.
Per our oddsFire tool, the betting public loves Seattle. A whopping 93% of both the money and the number of bets coming in on the spread are backing Seattle to cover 6.5 points. Some sharp money is on the under. While only 35% of the bets on the total are on the under, 48% of the money is backing the under.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason, our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks ($16,500)
The slate's top play is Russell Wilson, and our projections put him in his own galaxy. We project him for 22.1 FanDuel points. Not only is that 7.1 more than any other player, Wilson is the slate's best point-per-dollar option even at his lofty salary.
The matchup doesn't jump out at you. Our schedule-adjusted numbers have Philly with roughly a league-average pass D, and the Eagles have allowed the seventh-fewest FanDuel points per game to signal callers (17.1). But some of that is due to the three-win Eagles seeing the fifth-fewest passing attempts against.
Wilson should have volume on his side as he's attempted at least 32 passes in all but two contests in 2020 and is pulling the strings for an offense with the ninth-highest pass rate (61.6%). He's also run for an average of 45.3 yards per game across his past six outings.
Wilson will likely be the chalk MVP play, so you may want to look elsewhere at MVP for game-theory reasons. But he obviously has a great floor/ceiling combination and is almost a must-have even if you're not using him as your MVP.
Carson Wentz ($14,500) and Jalen Hurts ($6,500), Eagles
Jalen Hurts is reportedly going to see an increased role in this one. How much will he play? That remains to be seen. It makes he and Carson Wentz tough to pin down for this slate, and they both feel like wild cards.
Hurts has a super friendly salary, and that makes it pretty easy to roll the dice on him. Plus, if you roster Hurts -- something I expect a lot of people to do -- it opens up gobs of salary for the rest of your lineup. With Wentz, well, it's difficult to stomach a $14,500 cap hit for a guy who may play half the snaps. But that will probably scare away the masses, making Wentz a fun GPP play.
The matchup is there as Seattle's defense has been ravaged by the pass this year, surrendering the second-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (25.4). If one of these two ends up playing the majority of the snaps, they could crush it in this spot.
It's a tough situation to project, but our model sides with Wentz, forecasting him for 15.0 FanDuel points. We have Hurts going for only 2.4 FanDuel points, though his legs and the cushy matchup give him plenty of upside if he gets a lot of playing time.
Tyler Lockett, Eagles ($13,000)
I lean Tyler Lockett over D.K. Metcalf ($14,000), because I'm expecting Metcalf to see a lot of Darius Slay.
But as is usually the case, you can make an argument for either of these two because their usage is fantastic. Lockett has the edge in target share (25.4% to 22.2%), but Metcalf holds the advantage in air yards share (36.4% to 30.3%). They both have seen a 21.9% share of the targets inside the 10.
We project Lockett for 13.8 points, 0.1 more than Metcalf, and Lockett has a salary that is $1,000 cheaper. As we've seen all year long, these two are capable of huge games, so they're viable MVP plays.
Chris Carson, Seahawks ($11,500)
Chris Carson wasn't on the injury report for this game, so he should be ready to rock. Prior to getting hurt, Carson was seeing nice pass-game usage in addition to a solid ground role. His 3.7 catches per game is a big boost over his previous career high of 2.5 grabs per game, and he was averaging one tuddie per game.
While Philly has allowed the 11th-fewest FanDuel points per game to running backs (18.9), that is a little misleading as they're giving up 133.4 rushing yards per game, the fifth-most.
Carson's salary is pretty modest for a lead back, and our model ranks him as the second-best point-per-dollar play on the slate. He's firmly in the MVP convo and is my favorite type of MVP pick -- someone who won't be the chalk MVP but also someone who isn't a super weird MVP play.
Jalen Reagor ($9,500) and Travis Fulgham ($9,000), Eagles
Given how poor this Seattle pass D has been, you're going to want exposure to Philadelphia's wideouts. Jalen Reagor and Travis Fulgham have been running as the Eagles' top two receivers, with Alshon Jeffery ($7,000) playing only 23 total snaps the last two weeks and being held without a catch in both games (three total targets).
Reagor and Fulgham, meanwhile, have logged snap rates of at least 88% in each of the past two games. Reagor has been the more productive of the two, making four receptions in two straight games with 47 and 52 yards. Fulgham has one catch for eight yards in two consecutive contests, hauling in only two of 12 looks.
Both are quality options in a game in which Philly's aerial attack could get back on track.
