FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 14 Sunday Night (Steelers at Bills)

On Online Sportsbook, the Buffalo Bills are 1.5-point home favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the total is at 48.5 FanDuel points -- which implies a 25.00-23.50 win for Buffalo.

Per our oddsFire tool, the betting public likes the Bills quite a bit, with 62% of the bets on the spread and 68% of the money backing Buffalo. The over is getting pounded as 74% of the bets and 77% of the money is on the side of the over.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

This past offseason, our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.

Josh Allen, Bills ($16,500)

Even in a difficult matchup, Josh Allen is capable of a huge game. In a not-all-that-easy matchup at the San Francisco 49ers last time out, Allen went nuts, throwing for 375 yards and four scores on his way to 30.1 FanDuel points. He's now scored at least 28.86 points in three of his last four games, with the lone exception being a 16.48-point day.

The combination of running ability (at least six rushing attempts in seven straight games) and the Bills opening up the offense lately (at least 38 passes in three of the last four) give Allen a solid floor and ridiculous upside.

We project him for 22.7 FanDuel points, and he's obviously a quality MVP pick, though he'll likely be the chalk MVP play.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers ($16,000)

The Steelers are averaging 40.7 passing attempts per game and have the seventh-highest pass rate (62.48%). That gives Ben Roethlisberger a pretty nice floor, and the passing volume has really risen of late, with Big Ben chucking it 53, 51, 46 and 46 times over his past four.

By our schedule-adjusted metrics, Buffalo ranks 11th-worst in both overall defense and pass D, and the Bills have surrendered the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to signal callers.

While our model isn't super high on Roethlisberger, forecasting him for only 17.9 FanDuel points, I think he could have a big day. He's one of my two favorites MVP plays on this slate.

Stefon Diggs, Bills ($14,000)

My other favorite MVP play is Stefon Diggs.

The volume has been there all season as Diggs is tied for second among all wideouts in target share (29%). His 36% air yards share, per AirYards.com, is juicy, too. He hasn't seen fewer than eight targets in a game since Week 4, and in that eight-game span, he's caught at least nine balls in four different contests.

The only thing he's missing this year is a big touchdown total, scoring just four times. Given Diggs' usage, yardage total (1,037) and how much the Bills like to throw it, the touchdowns will come.

Pittsburgh is the third-best pass defense by our metrics, but they have struggled some -- at least relative to their otherwise elite numbers everywhere else -- with big plays in the passing game, sporting a middle-of-the-road rate in explosive pass plays allowed.

We have Diggs going for 14.6 FanDuel points, the most among non-quarterbacks by 4.6 points. He's a high-upside MVP choice and a superb stacking partner with Allen.

Chase Claypool, Steelers ($11,500)

Admittedly, the arrow is pointing down a bit on Chase Claypool right now after he played only 44% of the snaps last week, his lowest mark since Week 2. But I think his down game, which resulted in a meager 4.8 FanDuel points, may scare people away, so it is a great time to invest in a talented dude with big-play ability.

For the season, Claypool's 29% air yards share paces the Steelers' receivers, and he's up to a 33% air yards share across the past five games. Even in limited action in Week 13, he still accounted for 22% of Pittsburgh's air yards, tops on the team.

While this could be a swing and a miss if Claypool's snaps are capped once again, I'm willing to roll the dice on him being out there a little more against Buffalo, and he's likely to be less popular than Diontae Johnson ($12,500). Our algorithm has Claypool totaling 9.1 FanDuel points.

Gabriel Davis ($10,000) and Cole Beasley ($10,000), Bills

With John Brown out the last two weeks, Gabriel Davis has logged two straight 97% snap rates. He's actually led Buffalo's wideouts in snaps in that span. Cole Beasley's snap rates were 85% and 75% while Diggs' were 97% and 95%.

But Beasley has been getting way more targets over the two contests, recording a 24% target share to Davis' 13%. Davis has operated as a downfield weapon, amassing a 31% air yards share, which is right in line with the air yards shares for Diggs (32%) and Beasley (33%).

In a vacuum, Beasley is the better play, and that's how our model has it, projecting Beasley for 11.4 FanDuel points and Davis to score 8.8. But with these two at the same salary, I'd imagine Beasley will be much more popular than Davis is, making Davis a fun leverage play.

James Washington, Steelers ($8,000)

If you buy into Claypool's snaps sticking at the level they were last week, James Washington is for you. Washington was a direct beneficiary of Claypool's reduced playing time as Washington played 54% of the snaps, his highest snap share since Week 7. Washington's snaps have increased in three straight games.

Washington is basically made for single-game slates. He's a deep-ball maven, holding a measly 7% target share over the last four weeks but accounting for 17% of the Steelers' air yards in that time. He's got touchdowns in four games this year but hasn't scored more than 4.0 FanDuel points in any game in which he didn't get a tuddie.

You're hoping for a big play here, and there's no floor if it never comes.