Sunday Night Football Preview: Do or Die for the Giants

The New York Giants are running out of time if they want to make a run at an NFC East title. They have lost five straight after a 3-2 start and now sit four games behind the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys, who are tied atop the division at 7-3. The G-Men will host the Cowboys on Sunday Night with their season on the line.

Dallas enters this contest off of a much needed bye week, having broken a two-game slide back two weeks ago across the pond. The NFL’s leading rusher DeMarco Murray, already with a well documented injury history, avoided punishment for one week after logging 244 carries in 10 weeks while Dallas quarterback Tony Romo desperately needed the time off to heal his nagging back ailments.

Dallas has been dominating opponents via the run game, boasting the seventh best rushing attack according to our Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) per play metric, which shows the overall effectiveness of their run game on a per-play basis while factoring in strength of schedule. The ‘Boys will need Romo to continue his career best efficiency to capture the NFC East. He is currently eighth in Passing NEP and fifth in Passing NEP per drop back and has the second-highest Success Rate – 53.66% - among signal callers with at least 250 drop backs. Outside of our metrics, Romo has a career high 107.2 passer rating. Simply put, an increased focus on the running game has led to a more efficient Tony Romo.

The Giants only have three cracks left inside the division while Dallas and Philadelphia tangle twice in three weeks starting Thanksgiving Day. New York desperately needs a win to keep pace. Using our Advanced Metrics, let’s see how this one shakes out.