FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 4 Monday Night (Raiders at Chargers)

Week 4 of the NFL season concludes with an AFC West showdown that is encroaching must-win territory. After the Kansas City Chiefs rebounded in Philadelphia yesterday, and the 3-1 Broncos suffered their first loss of the season, this division is now wide open for all four teams. Can the Raiders move to 4-0 behind a white-hot Derek Carr, or will the Chargers defend home field and move into a three-way tie for first?

For those unfamiliar, single-game football slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, roster construction instead features an "MVP" slot accompanied by four flex slots. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial to balance floor and ceiling for optimal lineup builds.

With that in mind, let's preview the single-game slate between Las Vegas and Los Angeles on FanDuel.

Game Environment

As is the case any time the Raiders and Chargers get together, oddsmakers are expecting a close contest. The Chargers are a 3-point home favorite, and inside beautiful SoFi Stadium, there are perfect conditions contributing to a healthy 51.5 expected total.

numberFire's model sees ostensibly no clear value on either side of tonight's contest. The Chargers are expected to win the game inside of it 55.8% of the time, and their -172 odds would imply a 63.2% probability. That leaves some mathematical value on the Raiders' moneyline, but nothing worth putting the house on. The model also has no conviction on the total with just a 55.36% projected chance to exceed 51.5 points.

The fantasy stars for Los Angeles are healthy, but there is a key injury to watch in Raiders' running back Josh Jacobs. Jacobs is questionable with an ankle injury, and his status is crucial. If he plays, he likely sees high-leverage work and significant snaps. If he doesn't, that opens the backfield for Peyton Barber and Kenyan Drake.

Here are some key information pieces to know before the contest about the two teams:

Player Picks

MVP Considerations

Derek Carr ($16,000): These two teams have talented quarterbacks, but the comparisons basically stop there. The Chargers are heavily concentrated, meaning that a large bulk of their production can be encapsulated in essentially four players. From a planning perspective, that makes Justin Herbert ($15,500) less of a priority to benefit from Los Angeles' offensive output.

The Raiders are not concentrated, and that makes Carr a focal point and a worthy top option at MVP. Carr has been reborn in 2021, and that has largely come from his 9.1 average depth of target (aDOT) that ranks fifth in the NFL entering Monday's contest. Carr has eclipsed 35 attempts and 380 yards passing in all three games in a variety of scripts, and with Jacobs injured, he likely will shoulder a heavy load for Las Vegas again on Monday.

Austin Ekeler ($13,500): If not going with Carr at the top spot, one of the top fantasy running backs in football should suffice. Ekeler was a prime breakout candidate for many fantasy players, and seeing 5 targets and 11.7 carries per game, he has had the volume one would have hoped for. Ekeler's 10 red-zone carries have been a pleasant surprise, and although it has not resulted in the monster fantasy performance yet, that eliminates the final obstacle Ekeler has historically faced to create one.

Ekeler's snap share is always a concern, but at a season-high 74% in Week 3, this is clearly his backfield at the moment. The Raiders have been strong against the run (0.01 Adjusted Rushing Defensive NEP), but Ekeler above any running back in the sport can contribute in the passing game instead.

FLEX Priorities

Darren Waller ($13,000): As the primer chart would indicate, the Raiders' tight end is still likely the top option in this offense. Waller's 87.5% route share is a massive leap above the next pass-catcher (Bryan Edwards; 74.5%), and he still is seeing the dominant share of receiving work. Waller has only 7 targets in back-to-back weeks, but with 33 total targets on the season, and a whopping 7 of them coming in the red zone, he still is likely due for some touchdown regression.

Waller will certainly be popular with the clear lead role in the Raiders' passing game, but a way to differentiate with him could be using him at MVP and hoping for a repeat of Week 1 on MNF, where he saw 19 targets in a wild, overtime win.

Keenan Allen ($12,500): The Chargers' passing game is beautiful for fantasy. There are two clear targets, as Allen and Mike Williams ($14,000) have a nearly identical role. Both have run over 80% of the team's routes and seen over 10 targets per game. The difference between the pair is that Williams has a monstrous five scores in three games, but Keenan Allen has just one. Allen actually has more high-leverage targets (5.0) than Williams (4.7), which does lend belief that over time, things in the touchdown department should equalize. At a $1,500 salary discount, Allen seems like value for what is essentially the same player.

Peyton Barber ($10,500): Often seen as a one-dimensional back in Tampa Bay, Barber showcased his full skill set in Week 3. Barber added 5 targets to 23 carries in a workhorse role with Josh Jacobs out of the lineup. Jacobs has just 4 total targets, and Kenyan Drake has not eclipsed 10 rush attempts in a game this season, so in some ways, Jon Gruden trusted Barber with a role he was unwilling to give either Jacobs or Drake.

Since Barber posted the first positive rushing NEP game of the season for the Raiders, and Jon Gruden reaffirmed his belief in him following that, this recommendation -- and this helper -- is written under the assumption Las Vegas likely holds Jacobs out of the Week 4 contest to heal, and that should inspire tremendous confidence to draft Barber's tremendous role at this reduced salary.

Value Plays, Pivots, and Punts

Bryan Edwards ($9,000): In terms of usage, Edwards is the Raiders' top wide receiver. He leads the team in both snaps (71.1%) and routes (73.6%), even while Henry Ruggs ($11,000) has posted a higher fantasy point total each of the past two weeks. From a value perspective, Edwards should be on the field more than Hunter Renfrow ($9,500) as well, which seems like a tremendous vote of confidence in Edwards from the Raiders' offensive play-callers, even if that opportunity has not materialized in fantasy points since Week 1. Between two kickers, the Raiders' top option to catch passes on most plays behind Darren Waller seems like a steal.

Kenyan Drake ($8,000): In tournaments, Drake is worth considering on the basis of injury, as if Peyton Barber would be forced to leave the game, the Raiders did not handle a single snap to a back beside Barber and Drake last week. In his current role without injury, he can definitely still contribute. Drake is averaging 18.3 adjusted opportunities (carries plus double targets) per game in a fairly predictable role of 7-10 carries with 5-7 targets.

The Raiders brought Drake in at a steep cost to be their primary pass-catching back, but have not gotten to use him since Week 1; they only have run 19 snaps trailing by at least 7 points the past two weeks. If Las Vegas trails in this contest, more of Barber's lion share of the work could shift Drake's way.

Jared Cook ($7,500): The glorious market shares are already more than one could ask for, but Los Angeles' dream offense also includes a tertiary receiving option at tight end. Cook has run 64.9% of the Chargers' team routes, but that number also surged to 76.9% in Week 3. The veteran only saw 3 targets last week, and just 16 total on the season, but 3 of those 16 have come in the red zone.

His large frame will always keep him in consideration for end-zone looks, and he likely builds on his peripheral usage now that it appears he has finally separated from Donald Parham Jr., who ran just 11 routes against Kansas City. For those who enjoy narratives in a single-game format, a revenge game against Las Vegas could do the trick, as he caught a career-high 68 balls for the Raiders in 2018 before being replaced by Darren Waller.