Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 5
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
Player | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | 25th Pct |
75th Pct |
25+ FDP% |
Boom/ Bust Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyler Murray | $8,500 | 23.7 | 2.79 | 18.3 | 30.3 | 45.7% | 2.17 |
Dak Prescott | $8,100 | 21.5 | 2.66 | 16.6 | 26.8 | 33.3% | 1.32 |
Tom Brady | $8,400 | 21.0 | 2.50 | 16.2 | 25.9 | 29.4% | 1.03 |
Kirk Cousins | $7,500 | 20.8 | 2.77 | 15.4 | 26.4 | 30.8% | 1.00 |
Jalen Hurts | $8,100 | 20.6 | 2.54 | 15.3 | 25.8 | 28.2% | 0.92 |
Aaron Rodgers | $8,000 | 20.3 | 2.54 | 15.0 | 25.6 | 26.9% | 0.84 |
Ryan Tannehill | $7,200 | 20.0 | 2.77 | 14.1 | 24.9 | 24.7% | 0.69 |
Daniel Jones | $7,400 | 19.8 | 2.68 | 14.2 | 25.2 | 25.3% | 0.71 |
Justin Herbert | $7,700 | 19.5 | 2.53 | 14.6 | 25.2 | 25.6% | 0.71 |
Sam Darnold | $7,600 | 18.7 | 2.46 | 13.1 | 24.3 | 21.8% | 0.57 |
Derek Carr | $7,100 | 18.7 | 2.63 | 13.7 | 23.6 | 19.2% | 0.50 |
Joe Burrow | $7,000 | 18.4 | 2.62 | 13.3 | 23.4 | 18.6% | 0.48 |
Trevor Lawrence | $6,500 | 18.0 | 2.77 | 13.0 | 23.2 | 19.4% | 0.45 |
Mac Jones | $6,700 | 16.9 | 2.52 | 12.4 | 22.1 | 15.0% | 0.32 |
Trey Lance | $6,900 | 16.5 | 2.40 | 11.5 | 21.4 | 12.2% | 0.27 |
Jared Goff | $7,100 | 16.1 | 2.26 | 11.1 | 20.8 | 10.6% | 0.22 |
Taylor Heinicke | $7,300 | 15.9 | 2.18 | 10.1 | 21.9 | 14.6% | 0.29 |
Baker Mayfield | $6,800 | 15.8 | 2.32 | 10.5 | 20.9 | 10.0% | 0.20 |
Jacoby Brissett | $6,300 | 15.4 | 2.45 | 10.6 | 20.5 | 8.0% | 0.16 |
Justin Fields | $6,400 | 15.4 | 2.40 | 10.4 | 20.5 | 10.4% | 0.20 |
Ben Roethlisberger | $6,600 | 14.2 | 2.16 | 9.4 | 19.2 | 7.8% | 0.14 |
Jameis Winston | $7,000 | 13.8 | 1.97 | 9.5 | 18.7 | 7.0% | 0.12 |
There aren't many passers I feel entirely great with for Week 5's main slate, but the two I'll be building around are rating out as the top two in median projections: Kyler Murray ($8,500) and Dak Prescott ($8,100). Murray's a very easy case after he's been putting up plus efficiency as a passer after opponent adjustments and is always a threat with his legs.
I talked in detail with Jim Sannes on this week's Heat Check podcast about the appeal of the Dallas Cowboys/New York Giants matchup: the path for a big game from Dak is pretty wide open.
On the other side of that game, Daniel Jones is projecting out pretty well -- as the QB8 from a median perspective. Jones has played above expectation with his passing efficiency and has averaged 6.8 rushes and 47.0 yards per game (second-best on the slate behind only Jalen Hurts [$8,100]).
Running Back
Simulation Results
Player | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | 25th Pct |
75th Pct |
20+ FDP% |
Boom/ Bust Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Henry | $10,400 | 22.0 | 2.11 | 15.5 | 28.3 | 56.8% | 4.16 |
Alvin Kamara | $8,600 | 18.4 | 2.14 | 12.4 | 24.4 | 43.8% | 1.93 |
Dalvin Cook* | $9,000 | 18.0 | 2.00 | 11.6 | 24.0 | 39.4% | 1.72 |
Austin Ekeler | $7,700 | 16.2 | 2.10 | 10.5 | 21.6 | 30.8% | 1.22 |
Najee Harris | $7,300 | 16.1 | 2.20 | 10.3 | 21.7 | 31.7% | 1.17 |
Ezekiel Elliott | $8,000 | 16.0 | 2.00 | 10.2 | 21.3 | 30.3% | 1.13 |
Saquon Barkley | $7,800 | 15.8 | 2.03 | 10.2 | 21.1 | 30.1% | 1.13 |
Aaron Jones | $8,400 | 15.3 | 1.82 | 9.5 | 21.0 | 29.0% | 0.93 |
James Robinson | $7,400 | 15.0 | 2.02 | 9.9 | 20.5 | 27.7% | 0.94 |
D'Andre Swift | $6,900 | 14.3 | 2.08 | 8.6 | 19.7 | 23.5% | 0.73 |
Christian McCaffrey* | $10,000 | 14.3 | 1.43 | 9.5 | 18.9 | 21.0% | 0.71 |
Leonard Fournette | $6,400 | 14.2 | 2.22 | 9.1 | 19.6 | 22.6% | 0.73 |
Chase Edmonds | $6,200 | 12.3 | 1.99 | 7.3 | 16.6 | 12.6% | 0.37 |
Damien Williams | $5,800 | 12.3 | 2.12 | 7.8 | 17.1 | 14.7% | 0.41 |
Josh Jacobs | $7,200 | 12.2 | 1.69 | 7.3 | 17.7 | 16.0% | 0.46 |
Antonio Gibson | $6,600 | 11.9 | 1.80 | 7.1 | 17.3 | 15.8% | 0.41 |
Nick Chubb | $7,500 | 11.6 | 1.54 | 6.9 | 17.2 | 15.9% | 0.41 |
Damien Harris | $6,500 | 11.4 | 1.75 | 7.1 | 16.3 | 12.1% | 0.32 |
Kareem Hunt | $7,000 | 11.2 | 1.60 | 6.7 | 15.1 | 9.0% | 0.23 |
Joe Mixon | $7,100 | 10.8 | 1.52 | 6.4 | 15.3 | 8.3% | 0.22 |
Miles Sanders | $5,900 | 10.4 | 1.76 | 5.9 | 15.0 | 7.6% | 0.21 |
Jamaal Williams | $6,000 | 9.5 | 1.59 | 4.7 | 14.1 | 5.4% | 0.15 |
Melvin Gordon | $5,900 | 9.5 | 1.61 | 4.8 | 14.0 | 5.3% | 0.14 |
Tony Pollard | $5,600 | 8.9 | 1.60 | 4.4 | 13.1 | 3.5% | 0.11 |
James Conner | $6,300 | 8.6 | 1.36 | 4.5 | 12.8 | 4.5% | 0.11 |
Javonte Williams | $5,800 | 8.4 | 1.44 | 3.8 | 13.1 | 3.6% | 0.12 |
Myles Gaskin | $5,300 | 8.1 | 1.52 | 3.6 | 12.4 | 2.8% | 0.10 |
Kenneth Gainwell | $5,700 | 7.9 | 1.38 | 3.5 | 12.3 | 2.3% | 0.06 |
Samaje Perine | $5,600 | 7.7 | 1.37 | 3.5 | 12.1 | 2.7% | 0.08 |
Chuba Hubbard | $6,700 | 7.4 | 1.10 | 3.2 | 11.8 | 3.2% | 0.08 |
Alexander Mattison | $6,500 | 7.3 | 1.12 | 2.8 | 11.1 | 1.7% | 0.06 |
Trey Sermon | $5,800 | 6.8 | 1.18 | 2.5 | 11.3 | 2.2% | 0.07 |
J.D. McKissic | $5,300 | 6.5 | 1.22 | 2.4 | 10.9 | 1.3% | 0.05 |
Kenyan Drake | $5,700 | 6.4 | 1.13 | 2.6 | 10.3 | 0.7% | 0.03 |
Mark Ingram | $5,400 | 6.4 | 1.18 | 2.0 | 10.5 | 0.8% | 0.04 |
We'll have to stay tuned to the news this week. We could have either the big dog himself -- Derrick Henry ($10,400) -- be the lone big dog at running back or have one, both, or neither of the other large dogs, Christian McCaffrey ($10,000) and Dalvin Cook ($9,000), on the slate. For now, Henry stands alone as the best play at the position easily, and value at the position makes him easy to roster. (Update: McCaffrey is listed as doubtful, and Cook is considered questionable.)
Strong median projections for Austin Ekeler ($7,700), Najee Harris ($7,300), Ezekiel Elliott ($8,000), and Saquon Barkley ($7,800) could also allow us to bypass possibly chalky Henry-plus-value running back combinations.
Leonard Fournette ($6,400) and Damien Williams ($5,800) should be key pieces this week to ensure we have the salary to allocate elsewhere and get back up for Henry (or CMC and Cook, depending on their status).
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
Player | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | 25th Pct |
75th Pct |
20+ FDP% |
Boom /Bust Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Davante Adams | $8,200 | 17.7 | 2.15 | 13.3 | 22.6 | 36.9% | 2.06 |
Justin Jefferson | $8,000 | 15.5 | 1.94 | 10.5 | 20.1 | 25.1% | 1.02 |
D.J. Moore | $7,900 | 14.9 | 1.89 | 9.6 | 20.1 | 25.6% | 0.92 |
CeeDee Lamb | $6,900 | 14.0 | 2.04 | 9.7 | 17.9 | 16.3% | 0.59 |
Amari Cooper | $7,100 | 13.9 | 1.95 | 9.6 | 18.3 | 18.6% | 0.61 |
Deebo Samuel | $7,700 | 13.8 | 1.80 | 9.9 | 17.7 | 13.7% | 0.58 |
A.J. Brown | $6,900 | 13.7 | 1.99 | 8.8 | 18.2 | 17.3% | 0.61 |
Chris Godwin | $7,600 | 13.6 | 1.79 | 9.0 | 18.2 | 17.3% | 0.58 |
Mike Evans | $7,000 | 13.4 | 1.91 | 8.4 | 18.6 | 19.4% | 0.58 |
DeAndre Hopkins | $7,500 | 13.3 | 1.78 | 9.2 | 17.4 | 14.6% | 0.50 |
Keenan Allen | $7,200 | 13.2 | 1.83 | 8.7 | 17.4 | 12.5% | 0.47 |
Terry McLaurin | $7,400 | 12.9 | 1.74 | 8.4 | 18.5 | 19.2% | 0.56 |
Adam Thielen | $7,500 | 12.4 | 1.65 | 8.0 | 16.8 | 11.9% | 0.40 |
Diontae Johnson | $7,000 | 12.2 | 1.74 | 7.4 | 16.2 | 10.4% | 0.33 |
Ja'Marr Chase | $7,300 | 12.1 | 1.66 | 7.2 | 16.7 | 13.4% | 0.39 |
Mike Williams | $7,700 | 12.1 | 1.57 | 6.5 | 17.6 | 16.9% | 0.46 |
Brandin Cooks | $6,300 | 11.9 | 1.90 | 6.6 | 17.8 | 16.8% | 0.47 |
Tee Higgins | $6,700 | 11.7 | 1.75 | 7.0 | 15.9 | 9.2% | 0.30 |
Kenny Golladay | $6,200 | 11.4 | 1.84 | 6.7 | 15.7 | 10.0% | 0.28 |
Antonio Brown | $6,500 | 11.1 | 1.71 | 7.0 | 15.2 | 6.2% | 0.22 |
Courtland Sutton | $6,100 | 11.0 | 1.80 | 6.2 | 15.8 | 9.9% | 0.29 |
Marvin Jones | $6,600 | 11.0 | 1.66 | 6.6 | 15.8 | 11.6% | 0.31 |
Allen Robinson | $6,100 | 10.6 | 1.74 | 6.1 | 14.8 | 7.4% | 0.22 |
Jakobi Meyers | $5,900 | 10.5 | 1.77 | 6.1 | 14.5 | 5.6% | 0.16 |
Laviska Shenault | $5,800 | 10.4 | 1.80 | 7.2 | 14.0 | 2.1% | 0.12 |
Tyler Boyd | $6,300 | 10.4 | 1.65 | 6.8 | 14.3 | 4.1% | 0.15 |
Odell Beckham | $6,400 | 10.0 | 1.56 | 5.6 | 14.8 | 8.2% | 0.22 |
DeVonta Smith | $6,000 | 10.0 | 1.66 | 5.7 | 14.8 | 9.2% | 0.21 |
Chase Claypool | $6,000 | 9.3 | 1.55 | 5.1 | 13.6 | 4.6% | 0.15 |
DeVante Parker | $5,700 | 9.3 | 1.64 | 4.5 | 14.2 | 6.5% | 0.16 |
Robby Anderson | $5,600 | 9.3 | 1.65 | 5.3 | 13.4 | 3.5% | 0.11 |
Tim Patrick | $6,000 | 8.9 | 1.49 | 4.7 | 12.7 | 3.5% | 0.10 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | $5,900 | 8.9 | 1.51 | 5.6 | 12.3 | 1.4% | 0.05 |
Darnell Mooney | $5,600 | 8.8 | 1.58 | 4.6 | 13.4 | 4.4% | 0.12 |
Hunter Renfrow | $5,800 | 8.6 | 1.49 | 5.4 | 11.7 | 0.8% | 0.03 |
Jaylen Waddle | $5,400 | 8.3 | 1.54 | 5.3 | 11.4 | 0.6% | 0.02 |
A.J. Green | $5,700 | 8.3 | 1.45 | 4.4 | 12.3 | 2.8% | 0.08 |
Christian Kirk | $6,100 | 8.1 | 1.33 | 4.1 | 12.2 | 1.5% | 0.05 |
Henry Ruggs | $5,900 | 7.9 | 1.34 | 3.6 | 12.8 | 4.4% | 0.12 |
Curtis Samuel | $5,200 | 7.8 | 1.51 | 4.1 | 11.6 | 1.9% | 0.06 |
Sterling Shepard | $6,400 | 7.7 | 1.21 | 4.6 | 10.7 | 0.3% | 0.01 |
Kalif Raymond | $5,300 | 7.6 | 1.44 | 3.3 | 11.7 | 2.3% | 0.05 |
Randall Cobb | $5,500 | 7.6 | 1.38 | 4.5 | 11.1 | 0.4% | 0.02 |
Rondale Moore | $5,200 | 7.6 | 1.46 | 4.7 | 10.6 | 0.1% | 0.00 |
K.J. Osborn | $5,200 | 7.5 | 1.45 | 4.3 | 10.5 | 0.4% | 0.02 |
Nelson Agholor | $5,500 | 7.4 | 1.35 | 3.9 | 11.2 | 1.0% | 0.04 |
Brandon Aiyuk | $5,300 | 7.4 | 1.40 | 4.2 | 10.9 | 0.7% | 0.02 |
Quintez Cephus | $5,100 | 7.3 | 1.43 | 3.4 | 11.1 | 1.2% | 0.03 |
Marquez Callaway | $5,400 | 6.9 | 1.28 | 3.8 | 10.2 | 0.3% | 0.01 |
Kadarius Toney | $5,300 | 6.8 | 1.28 | 3.4 | 9.8 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
The projection for Davante Adams ($8,200) is putting him in his own tier despite a salary that is quite reasonable by comparison to the rest of the position. Behind only Adams, Justin Jefferson ($8,000), and D.J. Moore ($7,900) in median projections is the Cowboys' duo of CeeDee Lamb ($6,900) and Amari Cooper ($7,100) in that promising game against the Giants.
The $7,000 range below them does little to stand out from one another overall.
High air yards projections for Brandin Cooks ($6,300; 123), Kenny Golladay ($6,200; 101), Courtland Sutton ($6,100; 100), and Marvin Jones ($6,600; 102) will naturally help them separate in terms of 20-point odds based on the underlying nature of the simulations and historical receiver ranges of outcomes.
Tight End
Simulation Results
Player | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | 25th Pct |
75th Pct |
15+ FDP% |
Boom/ Bust Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darren Waller | $7,400 | 13.8 | 1.87 | 9.1 | 18.3 | 43.8% | 0.60 |
George Kittle | $6,500 | 10.9 | 1.68 | 7.1 | 14.9 | 24.9% | 0.18 |
T.J. Hockenson | $6,400 | 9.7 | 1.52 | 5.6 | 13.5 | 17.8% | 0.12 |
Noah Fant | $5,900 | 8.6 | 1.45 | 4.7 | 12.4 | 13.8% | 0.06 |
Dalton Schultz | $6,200 | 8.2 | 1.32 | 4.5 | 11.8 | 9.6% | 0.04 |
Mike Gesicki | $5,600 | 7.8 | 1.39 | 3.4 | 11.8 | 11.0% | 0.07 |
Robert Tonyan | $5,300 | 7.7 | 1.44 | 4.1 | 11.5 | 8.8% | 0.04 |
Jared Cook | $5,200 | 7.6 | 1.45 | 3.7 | 11.4 | 9.0% | 0.05 |
Evan Engram | $5,300 | 7.1 | 1.34 | 3.4 | 11.0 | 7.8% | 0.04 |
Tyler Conklin | $5,100 | 6.8 | 1.34 | 3.7 | 10.1 | 4.5% | 0.01 |
Dallas Goedert | $6,100 | 6.7 | 1.10 | 3.4 | 10.0 | 4.6% | 0.02 |
Dan Arnold | $4,800 | 6.3 | 1.32 | 2.4 | 9.7 | 4.6% | 0.03 |
Jonnu Smith | $4,900 | 6.1 | 1.24 | 2.9 | 9.3 | 3.1% | 0.01 |
Austin Hooper | $4,900 | 5.9 | 1.21 | 2.6 | 9.4 | 3.4% | 0.01 |
Cameron Brate | $5,000 | 5.9 | 1.18 | 2.5 | 9.2 | 3.9% | 0.01 |
Anthony Firkser | $4,700 | 5.8 | 1.24 | 2.7 | 9.1 | 3.6% | 0.00 |
Maxx Williams | $5,200 | 5.8 | 1.11 | 2.6 | 9.1 | 3.0% | 0.01 |
Cole Kmet | $4,800 | 5.5 | 1.15 | 2.5 | 9.1 | 2.1% | 0.01 |
Hunter Henry | $5,400 | 5.4 | 1.01 | 1.7 | 8.6 | 3.4% | 0.01 |
Zach Ertz | $5,000 | 5.4 | 1.07 | 1.9 | 9.3 | 3.9% | 0.02 |
Blake Jarwin | $5,000 | 5.3 | 1.07 | 2.2 | 8.7 | 2.9% | 0.01 |
Ricky Seals-Jones | $4,900 | 5.3 | 1.08 | 1.7 | 8.4 | 3.0% | 0.01 |
C.J. Uzomah | $5,500 | 4.7 | 0.85 | 1.8 | 7.8 | 1.5% | 0.00 |
Juwan Johnson | $5,000 | 4.5 | 0.91 | 1.5 | 7.8 | 1.1% | 0.00 |
O.J. Howard | $5,100 | 4.0 | 0.79 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 1.5% | 0.00 |
Adam Trautman | $4,300 | 4.0 | 0.92 | 1.3 | 6.6 | 0.2% | 0.00 |
David Njoku | $4,700 | 3.9 | 0.83 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 1.0% | 0.00 |
Jordan Akins | $4,200 | 3.8 | 0.90 | 0.6 | 7.1 | 0.8% | 0.00 |
Ian Thomas | $4,400 | 3.5 | 0.79 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 0.5% | 0.00 |
Tommy Tremble | $4,400 | 2.7 | 0.61 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 0.4% | 0.00 |
Eric Ebron | $4,600 | 2.6 | 0.56 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 0.1% | 0.00 |
Geoff Swaim | $4,200 | 2.4 | 0.58 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 0.1% | 0.00 |
With no Travis Kelce on the slate, we have minimal chances to allocate heavy salary to tight ends, and it's only Darren Waller ($7,400) listed at a salary higher than $6,500. Waller's 75th-percentile outcome rates out as 3.4 points higher than any other tight end's, and his floor/ceiling rating is tops, as well -- as expected.
It might seem weird to have Dalton Schultz ($6,200) rate as a solid value at his new salary, but he does lead the Cowboys in target share (23.0%) since Week 2.
Mike Gesicki ($5,600; 61) trails only Waller (72) in projected air yards among main-slate tight ends and remains a volume-based, yardage-based option even if his offense may not move the ball a lot.