Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 8

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

The few top-end quarterbacks we have this week all rate out well, but we'll either need to embrace value at running back...or punt at tight end to get heavy exposure to them simply because the value at receiver seems to be pretty weak overall.

Josh Allen ($8,800) is the play of the week, followed by Jalen Hurts ($8,400) and Matthew Stafford ($8,200) based on the boom/bust ratios.

The middle tier does have viable options, however, namely Carson Wentz ($7,200), Ryan Tannehill ($7,500), and Matt Ryan ($7,200).

Wentz and Tannehill face one another (and below-average adjusted pass defenses), and Ryan has trended up over the past three games, posting efficiency that would rank second on the full season, via numberFire's metrics.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Running back is pretty loaded from top to bottom, and that starts with Derrick Henry ($10,500). However, seven other backs also have 75th-percentile outcomes that are above 20.0 points, suggesting that he's not a must-play option.

D'Andre Swift ($7,900) is getting love from the simulations and has a pretty high ceiling, given the receiving work he sees -- which is part of the dynamic range-of-outcomes factored into these numbers. He's my favorite play above $7,500.

There's a pretty marked cutoff after Chuba Hubbard ($6,600) in terms of 75th-percentile outcome, though I personally would rank Hubbard below that cutoff line. Either way, we've got 12 or 13 backs with 75th-percentile outcomes of at least 19.0 points. That really should make us think long and hard before loading up on the value backs with lower ceilings.

Kenneth Gainwell ($5,900), Antonio Gibson ($6,200), Michael Carter ($5,700), and Myles Gaskin ($5,700) all rate as more likely to "boom" than to "bust."

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

The sims love Cooper Kupp this week even at the salary of $9,200, so we should strongly consider building around him -- especially if we are using mid-range or value running backs.

Stefon Diggs ($7,300) rates out second in median outcome despite a salary in the low $7,000 range. He's a virtual lock for cash-game scenarios and doesn't need to be faded in tournaments; we can differentiate in other ways.

Calvin Ridley ($7,000) and Chris Godwin ($7,200) also have standout boom/bust ratios among players in the low $7,000 tier.

The best values by projected air yards include Brandin Cooks ($6,000), Calvin Ridley ($7,000), Courtland Sutton ($7,100), Jerry Jeudy ($6,000), and DeVonta Smith ($6,200).

Tight End

Simulation Results

There's a bit of a big three at tight end this week in terms of the floor/ceiling rating, but nobody is more likely boom than to bust, which is expected at tight end. Those three are Kyle Pitts ($6,800), T.J. Hockenson ($6,200), and Dallas Goedert ($5,900).

Ricky Seals-Jones ($5,400), Dan Arnold ($4,900), Tyler Higbee ($5,300), and Jared Cook ($5,200) rate out as the best value options, and Tommy Sweeney ($4,300) is a potential punt play with Dawson Knox out.