Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 11

One of the things that makes fantasy football so captivating is the variance. Derrick Henry was the RB1 in all of fantasy in half-PPR formats in 2020, but Henry himself only had three weeks as the top fantasy scorer. That means, on individual weeks, some very strange players may lead the league in fantasy points at their positions.

That opens the door for some room to be "spicy" and make some fun predictions. In a landscape increasingly set ablaze by "hot takes," it can be difficult to understand the difference between a bold prediction -- based on a particularly strong spot for a team or player -- and a senseless take with the prayer of becoming correct based on variance.

Let's shoot for the former with five interesting spots to target during this weekend's NFL games.

(All predictions are for half-PPR and FanDuel scoring for quarterbacks.)

1. It's Not Tua Late: The Dolphins Quarterback Posts a Top-10 Week

The rumors of Tua Tagovailoa's downfall have been greatly exaggerated.

The Dolphins' signal-caller got a feel-good win over Baltimore on Thursday night in Week 10, but it really shouldn't have come as a surprise. Tagovailoa has been a really solid passer in manageable matchups this season.

Tagovailoa struggled against the Bills and Patriots, but many have. Those are two of the top-six teams in terms of Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play in the NFL. In Tagovailoa's other three appearances, he was a top-12 fantasy quarterback and posted 0.24 Passing NEP per drop back. For context, the league average is around 0.14 Passing NEP per drop back this season.

Miami's 66% pass rate in situations separated by less than seven points is the third-highest rate in the league. They prefer the ball in Tua's hands rather than using their incapable backfield.

Now, Tagovailoa gets the best matchup in the sport. The New York Jets not only are a dreadful pass defense (0.29 Passing NEP per drop back allowed; worst in the NFL), but their inept offense also provides plenty of time of possession and short fields.

Points per game aren't always the best metric to indicate performance, but the Jets are allowing 43.75 points per game in their last four contests. That's absurd. Tagovailoa is an excellent streaming option with all the makings of a QB1 in most leagues.

2. Jonathan Taylor Posts Fewer Than 100 Scrimmage Yards

100 scrimmage yards are usually a big deal for a running back, so predicting one falls short of that mark isn't always bold.

With Jonathan Taylor, it definitely is. Taylor has eclipsed the century mark in each of the Colts' last seven games despite battling some snap concerns earlier in the season. Now, at an 83.9% snap share in Week 10, why on Earth would this be the week he comes crashing down to Earth?

His matchup.

The Bills' defense is arguably the best in football, and they've allowed just two backs to break 100 scrimmage yards this season. It was Derrick Henry doing Derrick Henry things in Week 6, and Antonio Gibson posted 102 scrimmage yards in Week 3. However, 73 of Gibson's yards came on one broken play; he averaged just 2.3 yards per carry on the afternoon.

At -0.08 Adjusted Rushing NEP per carry allowed, the Bills are the most efficient run defense in football. It's not as if Taylor can't bust the century mark -- it's just not as automatic as his previous performances would indicate.

The additional nuance here is that Indianapolis has operated in a positive game script in each of the last seven weeks. It's hard to believe, but the last time we saw them trail for over 15 minutes in a game was against Tennessee in Week 3, and Taylor's snap rate was just 49.1%.

As 6.5-point underdogs to Buffalo, that possibility is very real, and Nyheim Hines is the team's pass-catching back. That much is known. There are enough red flags to believe this won't be close to Taylor's best week of the year although you're likely starting him in most leagues.

3. Minnesota and Green Bay's Game Doesn't Feature a Top-5 Fantasy Player This Week

There are so many amazing players to be excited about in this weekend's Vikings and Packers in a dome in Minneapolis.

I would temper said expectations. Currently, Dalvin Cook and Davante Adams are top-10 projected players by numberFire in this game. Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and A.J. Dillon are all worthy candidates in their current roles as well.

This game, though, could be terribly disappointing. Both of these defenses are playing well, and the pace in this game is downright ugly.

The Packers, fresh off a shutout of Seattle, have allowed 22 or fewer points in seven straight games. In that time, their -0.01 NEP per play allowed is third-best in the NFL. The Vikings in that stretch are allowing just 0.02 NEP per play (tied for sixth-best in the NFL), as well.

These two strong defenses won't face a ton of plays, either. Using Brandon Gdula's adjusted pace and pass rate report, this game is the second-slowest game this weekend. Green Bay is the slowest team in the NFL, and that likely doesn't change with Aaron Jones sidelined with a knee injury, for they have one less weapon available to keep up in a shootout.

You'll still want to start all your studs (plus A.J. Dillon if you were lucky enough to have him), but the projection of this game going crazy is not very likely.

4. Gerald Everett is a TE1 Again

It's always felt like there's room for a consistent third Seahawks pass-catcher, but seemingly, one has never materialized behind D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Grading on a curve for tight ends, Gerald Everett has a chance to become that guy. His athletic profile out of college was always interesting, but he was buried in the Rams' deep passing attack. Hopes for a breakout were squashed with Russell Wilson's finger injury, but the quarterback has returned, and Everett seems in a decent spot to benefit moving forward.

Everett saw a season-high eight targets and played 74.6% of the snaps in Week 10's ugly loss. Surprisingly, none of them were high-leverage targets deep or in the red zone. In the five full games with Wilson healthy, Everett has played 75.9% of the snaps and averaged 4.3 targets per game.

It's purely speculative that his target volume sticks to a 21.3% share like Week 10, but it also doesn't have to for Everett to be a TE1 in a 12-team league. Dallas Goedert is hurt, T.J. Hockenson doesn't have a functional quarterback, and Dalton Schultz is losing work to Michael Gallup.

The third option in an offense led by an elite quarterback is worth a speculative addition if you manage any of those three tight ends (or have streamed all season).

5. The Browns D/ST Rebounds with a Top-5 Week

The Browns' defense has been a Jekyll-and-Hyde situation in fantasy this season.

They've allowed 21 or fewer points to opponents in six games this season, but they've also allowed 33 or more points in four contests. Who needs average?

That makes them a top-tier streaming option in plus matchups, and the Detroit Lions definitely qualify. They've allowed four separate top-five weeks this season to opposing fantasy defenses, and their situation couldn't be much worse entering this game with the Brownies.

They just played 70 full minutes in wretched conditions against Pittsburgh and now travel to Cleveland as 10.5-point underdogs. They were a botched kick from their first win of the season; as a human, that has to be a brutal spot to get up with the full motivation to practice again the next week.

Cleveland's 33% pressure rate is also tied for the fourth-best mark in the NFL behind Myles Garrett. They also do it with a low blitz rate (21.1%; 12th-lowest in the NFL), and that is where Jared Goff struggles the most. Goff only posts 0.02 Passing NEP per drop back without a blitz. When blitzed, he's closer to the league average at 0.15 Passing NEP per drop back. Cleveland, though, can get their pressure with four guys.

They're a top streaming option if they slid through your waiver wire, and they're also a top daily fantasy option despite the hefty salary.