FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 6

Welcome to our weekly FanDuel NFL primer, where we give you an overview of the Sunday main slate to help you get started on your research.

As always, we recommend checking out all of numberFire's daily fantasy tools at your disposal. In particular, our weekly projections can help you nail down who might be the slate's top scorers and best values, while the heat map is a great way to get a general overview of the slate's implied totals and every team's strengths and weaknesses.

Now, let's run through some of this week's top plays of the slate.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($9,200 on FanDuel): We're finally getting the highly-anticipated rematch of last season's playoff thriller between Buffalo and Kansas City, and there's no question that this is the game of the week.

This showdown between Allen and Patrick Mahomes ($8,600) has a slate-high 53.5 total, and the visiting Bills are just 2.5-point favorites. These offenses also rank first and second in pass rate over expectation, per our Brandon Gdula. The contest has shootout written all over it.

The two superstar quarterbacks continue to set a high bar in 2022. Among starting signal-callers, both rank top-three in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back and top-four in Passing Success Rate. Both players have exceeded 30 FanDuel points twice already this season, and it's easy to envision one or both doing so on Sunday.

Both are firmly in play, but Allen gets the slight edge and sits atop numberFire's projections.

Per our metrics, Allen has the easier matchup against a Chiefs team that ranks 16th in adjusted pass defense, whereas Mahomes must contend with a top-five unit. Allen also continues to have a significant edge as a runner, averaging a robust 7.0 carries and 45.0 rushing yards per game.

Lamar Jackson ($8,600): If you aren't going with Allen or Mahomes, Jackson is the clear pivot, and he's projected for the second-most points behind Allen, per numberFire's model. The dual-threat is coming off back-to-back down games, but we know Jackson is capable of putting up video game numbers on any given Sunday. Let's not forget that he surpassed 40 FanDuel points in Weeks 2 and 3.

While Jackson isn't passing with the same efficiency as the other two, he still cracks the top 10 in Passing NEP per drop back, and he remains lethal with his legs. He leads the position in rushing yardage by a wide margin, averaging 74.8 yards on 9.8 attempts per game.

This Ravens-Giants contest has a middle-of-the-pack 45.5 total, so we're not exactly expecting an amazing fantasy environment, but the Ravens should still be able to post a healthy score as 6.0-point road favorites.

New York ranks 25th in total adjusted defense and 17th against the pass, giving Jackson a clear path toward bouncing back this weekend.

Geno Smith ($7,400): The only other game outside of Kansas City with a particularly high over/under belongs to this Arizona-Seattle matchup (50.5 total), and it pops as the second-best in terms of pace and sixth-best in pass rate over expectation, per Gdula.

Only a 2.5-point spread separates these two teams, and both defenses struggle mightily against the pass, further pointing to a back-and-forth affair. The Cardinals are 29th in adjusted pass defense while the Seahawks are 32nd.

Rostering Kyler Murray ($8,300) will be the conventional way to go at quarterback, but we shouldn't overlook Smith, perhaps the biggest early-season surprise. Murray and this Cardinals offense have been woefully inconsistent in 2022, and of the two signal-callers, it's Smith who has a 30-point FanDuel performance under his belt this year.

It remains to be seen if Smith can keep up his strong play, but here he is ranked fourth in Passing NEP per drop back and third in Passing Success Rate through five weeks. That's pretty good for a guy with just the ninth-highest quarterback salary, and it doesn't hurt that he's easy to stack with his two standout wideouts, as well.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor ($8,000): Taylor returned to practice this week, which is a positive sign that he could play this week. If that's the case, this feels like a "buy low" spot for one of the league's best overall backs.

Although his fantasy results have been mixed, Taylor's workload has remained excellent when healthy. Among running backs, he ranks third in snap rate (78.1%) and is tied for first in red zone rush share (93.3%). Across his four games, he's logged 45, 11, 31, and 26 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets), with the lone down game coming in a Week 2 blowout loss at Jacksonville.

Well, he's facing those same Jaguars this weekend, but the Colts are 2.5-point home favorites, so this one should stay more competitive. Taylor is projected for the most points at the position, per numberFire's model.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($7,500): With Damien Harris expected to be out, Stevenson vaults up the charts as a no-brainer play.

Harris went down early in Week 5, leading to Stevenson logging 29 adjusted opportunities and an 89.3% snap rate in a true workhorse role. Pierre Strong Jr. is the only other healthy Patriots running back to play any snaps this season -- and it was just three in Week 2.

It's pretty safe to say that Stevenson should see massive volume against the Browns.

And if the usage wasn't enough, the matchup really puts Stevenson over the top. Cleveland ranks 32nd in adjusted rush defense and has given up the third-most FanDuel points per game to opposing backfields.

Kenneth Walker III ($6,500): Walker is another back who will see an increased role due to injury, as teammate Rashaad Penny has been ruled out for the season.

In the three games where he played at least 50% of the snaps, Penny averaged a 68.5% snap rate and 17.7 adjusted opportunities per game, so we should assume that Walker will see a similar role -- if not more.

While the Cardinals are a much worse defense against the pass, this is still a stellar spot to roster Walker as part of one of the week's most fantasy-friendly game environments. He projects as the second-best value among backs with salaries below $7,000.

Eno Benjamin ($6,300): Sensing a theme here? Benjamin is the top running back value with a sub-$7,000 salary, and he's yet another player set to see an injury-related bump in opportunities. Both James Conner and Darrel Williams are sitting out this week, leaving Benjamin as pretty much the last man standing.

Across Conner's three games playing over 50% of the snaps, he tallied 22.0 adjusted opportunities per game with a 65.9% snap rate, so Benjamin should slide into fruitful usage.

Like Walker, he'll benefit from this potential shootout, but he could have an even easier path to success, too. Seattle's 26th in adjusted rush defense and has allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs.

If you're looking for another value option, also consider Devin Singletary ($5,700), who might not garner as much attention after a quiet Week 5. Singletary sees far more volume in non-blowouts, as he logged a 79.6% snap rate in Buffalo's tight games against Miami and Baltimore. We should expect similar usage in Sunday's track meet against Kansas City.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($8,900): While Gabe Davis ($6,900) stole the headlines after catching two long touchdowns last week against Pittsburgh, Diggs still led the team in targets (11) and recorded 100-plus yards for the third time this season.

Diggs tops the team with a 25.9% target share and 34.6% air yards share, and those marks would likely be even higher if the Bills weren't routinely blowing out their opponents. Of course, that shouldn't be an issue this weekend, and he's the best guy to attach to Allen if you can afford to pay up for both salaries.

Only Cooper Kupp ($9,400) has scored more FanDuel points at the position than Diggs this year.

Deebo Samuel ($7,600): Samuel didn't pop for a big score last week, but he still scored double-digit FanDuel points for his fifth straight game and remains at an appealing salary.

Despite his hybrid role, Samuel is averaging a team-best 27.6% target share and running a route 90.5% of the time. While his 16.1% air yards share doesn't move the needle, he's still averaging 1.8 downfield targets (10-plus air yards), which is the team's second most.

Samuel has only rushed twice in each of the last two weeks, but he's still averaging 4.2 carries per game, which only adds to his fantasy upside.

This is a good spot for him against the Falcons, a team that ranks 22nd in adjusted pass defense and has allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts. Samuel projects as the best point-per-dollar value among wide receivers.

Tyler Lockett ($7,500) and D.K. Metcalf ($7,400): The great thing about the Seahawks' passing game is we know exactly where the ball is going. Lockett and Metcalf are locked and loaded as the team's top wideouts, with Locket logging a 26.1% target share and 39.5% air yards share and Metcalf earning marks of 28.1% and 37.4%.

That centralized usage hasn't led to as many spike weeks as we would expect from this duo, but one or both could be in line for a boatload of fantasy points against Arizona's poor pass defense. It's worth noting that Metcalf has a significant advantage in red zone targets (43.8%) over Lockett (12.5%), so he could be the better bet to find the end zone.

Both players crack the top 10 in numberFire's wide receiver projections.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,800): Once we get past Travis Kelce ($8,300), it's hard to fully trust any other Kansas City pass-catcher, but at this salary, we can talk ourselves into Valdes-Scantling.

MVS is coming off season-highs in targets (8), receptions (6), and yardage (90), and he continues to see a solid role in this offense. He ranks third on the team in target share (17.1%) and is second in air yards share (23.7%). He's averaging a team-high 3.0 downfield targets per game.

This is a tough matchup against the Bills for Valdes-Scantling, but he's a great way to gain cheap exposure to this Mahomes-led juggernaut.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews ($7,800): The aforementioned Kelce is an obvious selection at tight end, but Andrews is right there with him at the top of our projections. Andrews has a giant lead at the position in target share (32.9%), and he also leads the way in air yards share (35.5%).

Unsurprisingly, Andrews is also Lamar Jackson's favorite red zone target, earning a 40.9% share inside the 20, and it's helped him score 18-plus FanDuel points in three of five games this year. If Jackson bounces back with a big game, he'll almost surely bring Andrews along for the ride.

Tyler Higbee ($6,200): Higbee is still waiting for that first touchdown grab of the year, but his usage remains encouraging. He leads all tight ends in snap rate (94.9%) and trails only Andrews in target share (25.3%). It's only a matter of time before the volume leads to a big week, and the Rams are expected to roll this week as 10.0-point home favorites over the Panthers.

Defenses

Los Angeles Rams D/ST ($4,400): L.A. projects as the top defense this week, and the only thing that could give us pause is a high roster percentage.

Given the poor performance of Baker Mayfield, it's hard to say whether P.J. Walker is that much of a downgrade for Carolina, but we're also talking about a player who's remained buried on the depth chart behind some sorry quarterback play over his young career. This will be just his third-ever start, and he has an alarming 8 interceptions and 13 sacks over just 128 career pass attempts.

Cincinnati D/ST ($3,600): The Bengals project as the top value defense against a banged-up Saints team that's missing multiple pieces on offense. It might surprise you that Cincinnati ranks sixth in adjusted total defense, and despite ranking near the bottom in sacks, they're closer to a middle-of-the-pack team at pressuring opposing quarterbacks.