Monday Night Football Betting: Our Model Expects Plenty of Points in the Dawg Pound
The AFC North gets the spotlight this Monday as the Cincinnati Bengals head north on I-71 to take on the Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati is looking to keep pace with the Ravens, who beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday. The Browns are just trying to salvage their season.
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
| Team | nERD | nERD Rank | Rushing Offense NEP Rank | Passing Offense NEP Rank | Rushing Defense NEP Rank | Passing Defense NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6.43 | 4 | 23 | 3 | 16 | 5 |
| Cleveland Browns | -3.81 | 25 | 2 | 25 | 31 | 27 |
The Browns have been a bit of an inverse of what we thought coming into the season. Even with Jacoby Brissett, they are a top-12 offense overall, but they're the third-worst defense in our nERD metrics defensively despite their personnel.
Cincinnati has followed up their Super Bowl run looking sporty, holding a top-10 rank both offensively and defensively.
Inside the Standard Bets
Our model favors the Bengals on the road, having them winning outright 62.2% of the time, –- but it’ll be a close one. They are expected to cover the 3.5 spread only 48.5% of the time. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the odds for Cincinnati to cover the spread are set at -104 (51.0% implied probability) with the moneyline odds sitting at -178 (64.0% implied).
In this case, the models line up with the spread and moneylines, so there are no official recommendations for these bets.
However, don't fear – we have an opinion on the point total. For this matchup, it sits at 45.5 points, and numberFire’s model gives a 58.7% chance the over will hit. At -108 odds (51.9% implied), our model is setting the over as a two-star wager.
Player Prop Value Bets
With Ja'Marr Chase out, a lot of attention has been given to Tee Higgins, but our player projection model says not to forget Tyler Boyd, projecting him for 74.2 receiving yards. With his receiving yardage line sitting at 60.5, I expect Boyd to surpass that.
Nick Chubb entered week 8 leading the league (of backs with 80-plus carries) in rushing yards (740) and yards per carry (5.9). In seven career games against the Bengals, Chubb has averaged 94.6 rushing yards.
The Bengals’ rush defense allows 119.0 yards per game (18th most), which inflates to 141.5 yards when on the road. Chubb’s rushing yardage prop is 81.5 and our projection for him is 90.2. This is an easy over wager for me.
Final Notes
-- The Browns have won the last four meetings between these two teams and -- going back further -- seven of the last eight. The over has hit in three of the last four games, as well.
-- Cincinnati has covered the spread in five of seven games this year.
-- At FanDuel Sportsbook, 69% of the spread money is on the Bengals, and they're also receiving 72% of the spread tickets.
