NFL Betting Guide: Week 17
Do you think you know a lot about NFL football? Try regularly picking five games against the spread.
Even with all the information and advanced stats, elite sports bettors are lucky to get about 53% to 54% of -110 (even probability) bets correct. It's essentially flipping a coin.
That being said, people -- myself included -- try. There are plenty of contests, media personalities, and other casual games at work or with friends that pick five games each week against the spread to see how they fare.
Using NFL odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, here are my five picks against the spread and a couple of totals I like this week. Play or fade as you please.
Week 16 Recap
Last Week: 1-4
Year-to-Date Record: 42-35-1 (53.2%)
I'm a contrarian, buy-low bettor. I'm going to get crushed when large favorites and the public feast. In Week 16, they did just that.
The Eagles' failure to cover truly stung. They held two double-digit leads in the type of game I expected and literally fumbled it away. The Commanders and Seahawks made some crucial miscues going for particular fourth downs, and the elite offenses they faced made them pay. Don't even discuss Denver; they just quit on the now-fired Nathaniel Hackett.
Carolina was the lone sharp side -- on an island -- that covered. We did recoup some losses by hitting both totals last week, though! It'll help in the pocketbook more than a contest.
That wave of public winners last week naturally means regression will come for the sharp sides. Let's stay the course.
Spread Picks
Pick #1: Packers (-3.0) vs. Vikings
Even as someone who feels the Vikings are better than the Packers in a vacuum, this is all about the spot.
Minnesota hasn't locked up the second seed yet, so there is something to play for, but Green Bay's season is over with a loss here at home. That's an entirely different level of urgency.
Earlier in the year, Green Bay wasn't well-equipped to attack this Vikings' secondary. Minnesota is numberFire's 10th-best rushing defense and its 6th-worst passing defense.
At that stage, Rodgers was just learning his new weaponry. Aaron has averaged 0.10 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back in the past five weeks, which isn't stellar but still ranks ninth in the NFL among those with at least 75 attempts. He's playing well.
The Packers' 13th-ranked pass defense -- including Jaire Alexander -- is one of the better-equipped units in the league to deal with Justin Jefferson, too.
This one has a "Pros vs. Joes" split. 64% of the tickets are backing the Vikings and a field goal, but 77% of the money is behind Green Bay to cover three points at home. I know they had a great week last week, but I don't want to be with the "Joes" all too often.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Packers 27-21
Pick #2: Patriots (-3.0) vs. Dolphins
Miami's season appears over.
It's not officially done yet, but Tua Tagovailoa is battling yet another concussion -- and he was outright ineffective after it allegedly happened. This is a Dolphins squad that's already dropped four in a row, and their defense has reeled to numberFire's 12th-worst unit (per our nERD rankings).
New England has a bit of that same feel, but at least they've got their starting quarterback. Plus, equipped with numberFire's best overall defense, they've got a more realistic path to the playoffs through Miami (at home) and a Bills team that could have no motivation if things break the right way this week.
Teddy Bridgewater has posted a dismal -0.06 Passing NEP per drop back in limited action this year, and importantly, he's been knocked out of two of his three appearances due to injury. This could get ugly for Miami if Skylar Thompson sees the field at any point.
This one has the makings of a Belichick defensive masterclass with an undertone of "we're onto Buffalo" after breaking the Dolphins for good.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Patriots 23-17
Pick #3: Texans (+4.0) vs. Jaguars
As is the dichotomy in corporate America during this holiday week, you can either not show up physically to meaningless work, or it can just be a mental day off.
Before the pseudo AFC South title game next week, the Titans physically aren't sending troops to their Thursday game with Dallas. While the Jaguars are reportedly playing everyone, they might be mailing it like most of the country today.
As a result, the Houston Texans are an intriguing home 'dog getting over a field goal this week. They're also a decent matchup for the Jags for reasons beyond their 13-6 win earlier this year. Jacksonville is ninth in pass rate over expectation, and Houston's 17th-ranked pass defense, per our nERD ranks, is the one thing they do at an average NFL level.
Coach speak aside, I'd be shocked if Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and key Jags defenders weren't out of this game early. In this matchup, Houston -- clearly still trying after last week's win -- can compete even if they face Jacksonville's starters all game.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Texans 22-20
Other Selections
These last two are disgusting, hold-your-nose system plays.
In the same realm of mailing it in, Kansas City just has to clear the dysfunctional Broncos and Derek Carr-less Raiders for the remainder of the year, and they'll be the top seed in the AFC if Buffalo slips at all through a tougher schedule. They're almost certainly headed to 14-3.
As I mentioned last week despite the losing outcome, the Chiefs laying double digits at home has historically been a world-class spot to back the 'dog. For a quick reminder, K.C. is 14-24-1 as a favorite of 3.5 points or more in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Plus, we just saw this matchup. Russell Wilson started to cook the Chiefs before suffering a concussion three weeks ago, and now we get an additional three points on the road despite the Broncos handily covering that matchup. Denver's eighth-ranked defense (per our nERD ranks) turned Mahomes over three times even after trailing 28-0.
With Nathaniel Hackett fired, there's significantly less risk Denver just mails it in. Jerry Rosburg is a well-liked veteran, and this is a key opportunity for him. With very little motivation in the Chiefs' corner, the backdoor is wide open here, too.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Chiefs 24-17
We'll find out which of these two squads wants their coach fired less on Sunday.
At home, the Falcons have a solid matchup here. It'll really be the first fair test of Desmond Ridder's career given road trips to New Orleans and Baltimore in your first two career starts is brutal. Arizona's defense should help him get comfortable.
The run-heavy Dirty Birds (second in rush rate over expectation) can pound the rock against the Cards, who are numberFire's ninth-worst rush defense. Arizona also isn't well-equipped with Colt McCoy or Trace McSorley to exploit Atlanta's key weakness, which is numberFire's worst pass defense in the NFL.
Finding out if Ridder can play is an important objective for Atlanta. Arizona has a gray cloud looming over their head now that Kyler Murray's knee injury has essentially ended this season and most of next.
This is, like the Minnesota-Green Bay matchup, a "Pros vs. Joes" split, too. A majority of bettors (52%) are taking three points with the visitors, but 66% of the cash is on the Falcons to cover at home.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Falcons 23-16
Totals of the Week
Pick #1: Bears at Lions (Over 52.0)
Finally! It's nice to see some points back on the board.
Winter weather can kick rocks in Detroit's dome, and we're backing an offensive explosion here between two of numberFire's worst schedule-adjusted defenses. The Lions are our worst defense in the NFL, and Chicago isn't too far behind as the fourth-worst.
Plus, we know these offenses can score. The playoff-hopeful Lions are numberFire's fifth-best offense overall, and after some early-season struggles, Chicago has put up 25.0 points per game in Justin Fields' eight starts since his coming-out party in New England.
This game also carries an above-average situation-neutral pace, so it's no surprise to see sharp money on the over. Despite getting just 44% of tickets, 66% of the handle is in favor of this side.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Lions 33-27
Pick #2: Colts at Giants (Under 38.5)
The Indianapolis Colts might be the first actively tanking squad in the NFL.
They turned to Nick Foles on Monday despite basically zero practice reps in the former champion's tenure with the team entering the week. He rewarded them with -0.58 Passing NEP per drop back. For context, Malik Willis was at -0.51. It was one of the worst quarterback starts all year.
Plus, this Indianapolis offense is down Jonathan Taylor, and in five weeks without Taylor, they've put up a horrendous -0.19 Rushing NEP per carry. In short, this offense can't move the ball.
Yet, somehow, Indianapolis is just a 5.5-point underdog, and it's on the back of their defense, which ranks in the top half of the league against the rush and pass, per our nERD rankings. They're facing a Giants squad that's only surpassed its expected game total in 5 of their 15 games this year.
While the Colts likely don't shut down Saquon Barkley and the G-Men completely, this tight spread has me bearish Big Blue's offensive outlook. I don't see a method in which the Colts put up points in bunches so long as Daniel Jones doesn't gift them.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Giants 20-13
