NFL Betting Guide: Wild Card Saturday
The 2023 playoffs are here. We are treated to a two-pack of games to kick off Wild Card Weekend, starting with the Seattle Seahawks traveling to take on the NFC West Champs, the San Francisco 49ers. That's followed up by an East-West showdown with the Los Angeles Chargers traveling to play the Jacksonville Jaguars.
If we peek at our power rankings, the first game could be kind of a mismatch. The 49ers clock in 3rd overall, and the Seahawks come in a lowly 22nd in our numbers. In the second game, we like the home team again, with the 8th-ranked Jags taking on the 18th-ranked Chargers.
Using NFL odds and totals from FanDuel Sportsbook, where can we find value from these contests?
All star ratings are out of five from numberFire's model.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Seahawks +9.5 (-110) - 1 Star
Over 42.5 (-106) - 2 Stars
Our appetizer for the day starts with an NFC West-only matchup. These two teams have already played twice this season, and the 49ers took both contests. The home team is favored by 9.5 points in the trilogy, and the over/under is set at 42 points.
It's a bit of an oversimplification to state that the quarterback slot has not gone as planned for the hosts. With Trey Lance missing the year with an injury, Jimmy Garoppolo stepped into the role and was unfortunately injured as well. That means that Brock Purdy has stepped into the quarterback spot, and he currently is one of the betting favorites for Offensive Rookie of the Year over at FanDuel Sportsbook. On his 181 drop backs this season, Purdy is tied for first in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) with a 0.31 mark this year. He's been brilliant.
On the other side, Geno Smith hasn't been as strong as the rookie, Purdy. Smith has roughly come in at league average, posting a mark of 0.10 Passing NEP per drop back. Smith has been a bit better from a Passing Success Rate perspective (50.16%), and he did set the Seahawks' passing record with 4,282 yards this year. That came with 30 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.
The rushing games are both solid -- they clock inside the top half, and Christian McCaffrey ranks seventh in Rushing NEP per carry (0.08) on the year. Kenneth Walker III is back in the fold for Seattle, and he's logged an average mark of 0.00.
In comparing the two squads, the 49ers rank sixth overall in our nERD ranks, which includes the third-best defensive unit. Seattle has been far more average, clocking in 19th on offense and 26th on defense.
The model is predicting a final score of 26.87 to 19.14 at a median outcome. We're expecting the Seahawks to hang tight and cash this large spread. The over is a better bet, per the model, with a 60.7% chance to hit against these 52.1% implied odds.
It's worth noting that 81% of the cash and 69% of the bets are on the home team.
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars +2.5 (-114) - 2 Stars
Over 47.5 (-110) - 3 Stars
Game two of the day features another repeat contest between the Chargers and the Jaguars, who met in Week 3 in L.A. The Jags blew out the home team 38-10, but the Chargers -- as the road team here -- are actually favored by 2.5 points for this one. The over/under is set at 47.5 points.
In that first meeting, signal-caller Justin Herbert was nursing injured ribs in the game, and he was held to under 300 yards passing with an interception. He will need to improve upon a solid yet unspectacular season, posting 0.10 Passing NEP per drop back on the year. Conversely, second-year man Trevor Lawrence has been better, logging 4,113 passing yards with a 0.19 Passing NEP per drop back mark (seventh-best in the NFL).
Austin Ekeler has been a fine running back this season to complement Herbert. Among the 33 running backs with 100 or more rushing attempts, Ekeler clocks in sixth in terms of Rushing NEP per carry (0.10) on the year. He's also garnered 128 targets and caught 107 passes this season. The dude has been fire.
In his first fully healthy season, Travis Etienne hasn't been quite as efficient as Ekeler, logging a mark of 0.02 Rushing NEP per rush. That was 19th in the league.
The Jacksonville offense ranks as a top-10 unit this year -- ranking eighth -- due to the strength of Lawrence and the fifth-best passing attack in the league. The Chargers, despite a quandary of weapons, rank 16th overall and 13th via the pass. Defensively, both teams are in the middle of the pack; Jacksonville clocks in 15th, and Los Angeles is 17th.
We don't see this as a blowout like the first meeting between the two teams. We expect Jacksonville to take this one 55.9% of the time, and as an underdog, that creates value on both their spread and moneyline. With these two quarterbacks and a solid situation-neutral pace, it's no surprise the model loves the over, too.
