Fantasy Baseball: Potential Bust Candidates at Each Position
Second Base: Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins
Current ADP: 37.39
Brian Dozier has been a legitimate source of power and speed at second base for the Minnesota Twins since landing in the big leagues. That production has translated in relation to the rest of the league, too.
He became an everyday player in 2013, and his 111 home runs during that time are the most among second baseman, while his 65 stolen bases rank fourth. Obviously, his homer total was boosted by the 42 bombs he slugged last season, which were the most for a second baseman since Davey Johnson hit 43 in 1973.
While Dozier's overall production has been rather consistent each year, he can be a bit streaky, and that was on full display last year.
Check out his monthly splits from the 2016 season.
| 2016 | PA | Avg. | HR | RBI | R | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 106 | .191 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 2 |
| May | 92 | .215 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
| June | 115 | .369 | 8 | 21 | 19 | 3 |
| July | 116 | .242 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 2 |
| August | 138 | .302 | 13 | 27 | 27 | 3 |
| Sept./Oct. | 124 | .263 | 10 | 18 | 19 | 7 |
While April and May were clearly terrible, the rest of the year looks great. The power emerged once the calendar hit June, but 23 of his 42 homers sailed over the wall from August 1st to the end of the regular season. Prior to 2016, his single-season career high was 28.
Whether his power surge is for real or not, 23 homers over the span of two months probably isn't a sustainable pace.
Since there have only been three 40-plus homer performances by second baseman since 1970, it'd be unfair to expect that from Dozier again. Our projections have him hitting 30 homers with 83 RBI's and 94 runs scored, all of which would be among the best at his position.
