5 Wide Receivers Being Selected Too Early in Fantasy Football Drafts

​Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals

ADP: WR26
numberFire: WR36

The above rankings are based on Fantasy Pros’ composite ADP data -- essentially the average of the industry -- and numberFire’s projections for wide receivers in 2016, based on a half-PPR scoring format. These five wide receivers have among the greatest disparity between their ADP and ranks on our site.

Michael Floyd is one such receiver. Floyd has perennially overpromised and under-delivered in the fantasy sphere, sitting as the third wide receiver for the Arizona Cardinals seemingly since he was drafted in 2012. Last year, however, Floyd finally put it all together. Over the second half of the 2015 season, Floyd averaged about 76 yards and 0.43 touchdowns per game on nearly five catches. That would have put him on a full-season pace for around 200 fantasy points -- the 16th-best total for a wide receiver.

What makes him such a risky proposition in 2016, however, is the fact that quarterback Carson Palmer had an absurd touchdown rate of 6.52 percent last year, that our own JJ Zachariason has proven will regress to closer to 5.22 percent this year. That means a difference of about eight passing touchdowns in this offense (numberFire projects Palmer for 600 attempts in 2016), and it’s safe to imagine that Palmer’s 2.05 percent interception rate last year will also regress closer to his career 3.05 percent rate.

Floyd is potentially the third option in this passing game when everyone’s healthy, and the offense isn’t likely to be as dominant as it was in 2015.