4 Fantasy Football Studs to Buy Low

Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Todd Gurley has just one 100-yard rushing performance in his past 12 games (Week 14 last year) after starting his NFL career with four straight. Of course, David Johnson only has one in his entire career (11 starts), so we know this isn't the overwhelming benchmark for fantasy value. Still, Gurley's 2.6 yards per carry is a concern, with a two-touchdown performance against Tampa Bay in Week 3 being the only saving grace in his putrid start.

Through four games, Gurley's longest run is 16 yards, and unlike the aforementioned Johnson, he simply isn't involved enough in the passing game to compensate for subpar rushing performances. His Rushing NEP per rush of -0.18 is 50th in the NFL among backs with 20 or more carries.

So why buy low on Gurley? Because not much on his team has changed in the last year, and Gurley was the RB5 in fantasy last year despite missing the first three games of the season.

In 2015, Gurley had much of his success with Nick Foles as his quarterback, and Foles' 2015 Passing NEP per drop back of -0.17 was by far the worst in the NFL for players with more than 200 drop backs. Despite a still-terrible Passing NEP per drop back of -.10, Case Keenum has proven to be an upgrade over Foles. Gurley has more than proven he can be effective in a bad offense.

What should separate Gurley from many backs is volume. Even in this horrible start, Gurley is fourth in the league in carries. The Rams' offense revolves around getting him the ball, and any back -- especially one as talented as Gurley -- is valuable if they're seeing significant volume.

In 2015, Gurley's 36.24% Rushing Success Rate -- the percentage of his runs that positively impacted his team's NEP -- was well below average, but his fantasy value was propped by volume and explosive plays. The volume is still there, and like Beckham, the big plays are probably not too far off.

It is worth noting that the Rams have faced four rush defenses in the top half of the NFL, with both the Seahawks and the Buccaneers ranked inside the top 10, per our metrics. Also, with Benny Cunningham out, Gurley saw a season-high 5 targets on Sunday, turning that into 5 receptions for 49 yards. Any involvement in the passing game only adds to Gurley's value.