4 Fantasy Football Studs to Buy Low
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants
Odell Beckham has yet to produce a touchdown and is the 37th receiver in standard fantasy leagues. That's not what anyone imagined when he was selected in the top five of most drafts.
A breakdown of his statistics through the first four games from 2015 and 2016 reveals why Beckham is an absolute buy-low, if you had any doubts:
| Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns | Targets | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | 307 | 2 | 41 |
| 2016 | 22 | 303 | 0 | 39 |
It's amazing what two touchdowns can do for a player's public perception. Currently, Beckham is on pace for 156 targets this season (9.75 per game) despite the emergence of rookie Sterling Shepard and the return the health of Victor Cruz. In 2015, Beckham saw 158 targets (9.88 per game) and finished as the fifth-ranked receiver in both standard and points-per-reception (PPR) leagues.
He had an extremely effective day against J (seven receptions for 121 yards), was serviceable in a weird game against the Saints (8 receptions for 86 yards) and yes, he was shut down against the Minnesota Vikings, who rank fourth in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per drop back.
If his value has dipped in your league, now is the time to pounce with a matchup this week against the banged up and 29th-ranked Green Bay Packers' pass defense. Eli Manning is currently on pace to throw 16 touchdown passes this season after posting 30 and 35 scores, respectively, the past two seasons. Positive regression seems likely for both Manning and Beckham.
Beckham right now has a Reception NEP per target of 0.47, which is Jarvis Landry (0.46) territory and a rate usually reserved for players who lack explosive plays on their resume. But with the targets and receptions continuing to mirror his career averages, in all likelihood, the touchdowns and big plays are coming.
