Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 6

Start Dan Carpenter as a Favorite

numberFire's Jim Sannes wrote a fantastic article in January on how kickers performed based on measures such as Vegas spreads, implied totals, and favorites versus underdogs. Based on his findings, we need to target kickers on teams that are heavily favored, with implied team total as the tiebreaker.

In Week 6, there are no teams favored by 10 or more, but there are a few favored by more than a touchdown. We are targeting cheaply-priced kicker Dan Carpenter of the Buffalo Bills since the Bills are favored to win by 7.5 points.

Buffalo has the sixth-highest implied total of the week at 26 points. Buffalo and San Francisco have both seen their games go over the total in 3 out of 5 games this season.

In his first two home games this year, Carpenter scored 7 and 10 points, respectively, on FanDuel. According to Sannes, kickers on teams favored by 5 to 9.5 points scored an average of 8.74 points per game.

Carpenter has the upside of a top five kicker and is priced just outside of the top 10 at $4,70, making him a nice option for those who want to spend up at other positions.