5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 7
Kansas City Chiefs Rushing Offense
If you can crack this little cookie, it could be the key to pulling in a good chunk of cash this weekend. Obviously, though, figuring out who will get the ball in the Kansas City Chiefs' backfield is no small task.
First, let's establish why you want a piece of these puppies. The Chiefs are facing the New Orleans Saints, who rank dead last against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics. They've allowed a top-nine weekly scorer at running back every week except for Week 2 when Rashad Jennings suffered an injury for the Giants. They've twice allowed teammates to both finish as top-20 weekly scorers (Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman were the top two backs in the entire league in Week 3), and the Chiefs' backs have the talent to duplicate that.
It's easy to say, "Use running backs against the Saints." Figuring out which one we want in this situation is a wee bit less simplistic.
Looking at what happened in Week 6, it'd be easy to pump up Spencer Ware. Dude turned 24 carries into 131 yards and a touchdown, easily out-touching Jamaal Charles, 26-11. With Ware's general efficiency and projected goal-line usage, it's easy to fall in love.
That doesn't paint a complete picture of what happened last week, though. The field conditions were atrocious due to heavy rain, and the Chiefs coasted to victory over the Oakland Raiders. That doesn't sound like the weather you want for a guy coming off of ACL surgery, especially when he's not really needed.
A closer look at the usage backs up this pause. When the game was within one score (eight points), the touch distribution was nine for Ware compared to seven for Charles. Once the Chiefs had built a two-score lead, Ware controlled 15 carries while Charles had just two.
This is seen in their red-zone usage, too. While the game was close, Charles had three red-zone rushes while Ware had only two. Additionally, two of Charles' red-zone rushes came from inside the five-yard line while Ware had one during the tight game. Maybe it's not such a lock that Ware will get all of the goal-line work.
The presence of one eats into the upside of the other, and it makes them hard to trust for DFS. But given the matchup, it's hard to divest completely. So, how do we handle these guys in Week 7?
Ware -- despite what's above -- seems to be the better option. He's the one who's more likely to be involved in the offense regardless of what game flow looks like. If the Chiefs get out to a big lead, Ware's going to carry the load. If it's a close game, it'll likely be closer to an even split, but even then, the efficiency will help compensate for a potential loss in volume.
Charles is tempting because he will likely come with little-to-no ownership after last week's usage. And, as we've seen here, we have reasons to believe his usage should increase in Week 7 if the game is close. For that reason, it's hard to disagree with having exposure to him in tournaments, even though you're inheriting boatloads of risk by doing so.
