5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 7
San Francisco 49ers Passing Offense
Regardless of how you get it, you're going to want exposure to this game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They're two of the three fastest teams in the league based on seconds per play, and neither defense is one that'll make you tremble. While the Buccaneers' offense should draw your attention, our focus will be on Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers' re-tooled passing attack.
Obviously, Kaepernick's debut in Buffalo wasn't great. He accounted for -1.71 Passing NEP, and his Success Rate was well below the league average at 40.6%. That's not what you want out of your quarterback for DFS, but it's also not what we should expect from Kaepernick in Round 2.
In order to illustrate just how bad this situation was in Kaepernick's season debut, let's list all of the efficiency-sapping factors that were at play in one, long, stupidly wordy sentence. Ready? The 49ers were playing on the road on the other side of the country in a 1 pm game against numberFire's 11th-ranked pass defense while battling 22 mile-per-hour winds. Whew. The abridged summary is, "They done tossed him in a blender."
Still, even with all of that, Kaepernick's legs helped him finish as the 14th-ranked fantasy quarterback of the week. And things are getting a whole lot prettier this week.
Instead of the laundry list of dings to Kaepernick's value last week, he'll now be at home to face the league's 25th-ranked pass defense with wind speeds at four miles per hour. Additionally, Vegas is digging this game with an over/under of 46.5 and a tight spread. It's pretty much exactly what we look for in a quarterback for DFS, even if Kaepernick may not be the most talented fellow in the player pool.
This could absolutely suck, and that's why you're not using Kaepernick in cash, despite his low price tag. Cousins' price is low enough to be in consideration there if you want to pay down. But the upside with his rushing abilities is tantilizing, necessitating tournament exposure.
Because of Kaepernick's abilities to make magic with his mobility, you don't need to stack him with anybody if you don't want to. However, both Jeremy Kerley and Torrey Smith are intriguing targets if you do.
Even after a dud in Week 6, Kerley leads the team with a 29.2% target market share, seeing nine targets in half of the team's six games. He led the team in snap rate in Kaepernick's debut, increasing the safety behind rolling him out.
With Smith, you're chasing that big-play ability, but you're also looking at a guy who should benefit from having Kaepernick at quarterback. Smith's seven targets in Week 6 were his most since Week 2, and that was despite a wind that would seemingly limit his viability down the field. He obviously carries more risk than Kerley, but the upside here is high enough to warrant a sniff.
