Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 12
Start Julian Edelman Because of a High Total
Betting on the Patriots offense is about as safe as it gets in fantasy football.
Julian Edelman is coming off of an outing where he was targeted 17 times. That can be attributed to the absence of Rob Gronkowski, but Edelman has seen targets all season, averaging 8.8 targets per game. The trends indicate that his success should continue this weekend.
The total between the Patriots and the Jets is 47 points. According to the Rotoviz Game Splits app, since 2014, Edelman has averaged 13.7 half-PPR points per game in games when the total was 47 points or higher. His career average in all games over that time span is 12.51 half-PPR points per game.
The Patriots are 4-0 against the spread as road favorites in 2016, which is by far the best mark in the NFL, so a win by more than a touchdown shouldn't surprise anyone.
Edelman is very cheaply priced on FanDuel at $6,400, tied for the 29th-highest price among wide receivers. If Gronkowski were to miss, Edelman is safe to start in all formats. If Gronkowski is active, Edelman will be a better target for tournaments.
