5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 12
Buffalo Bills Rushing Offense
This is legitimately one of the best situations you could possibly imagine for a running back. The Buffalo Bills murk opponents on the ground, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are vomit-worthy in that department defensively. With the Bills favored by seven at home, it checks every box for running backs in DFS.
If only LeSean McCoy were healthy.
McCoy had surgery to repair a dislocated thumb on Monday, casting doubt about whether he'll be able to suit up in Week 12. Head coach Rex Ryan didn't definitively say that McCoy would play when he was asked about it on Monday, though the team had expressed optimism about McCoy's availability previously. Basically, we've got another week ahead of tracking injury reports to see if McCoy will play in a juicy matchup. Dope.
If McCoy's able to play, he should be a fixture in your lineups. The Jaguars rank 26th against the rush, and they were 32nd entering last week's matchup against the Detroit Lions. The Lions don't really have a functioning run game right now, so the rapid ascension makes sense. The Bills lead the league on the offensive side, duplicating the success they had last year, so this is a defense McCoy could throttle when healthy. Check on him in practice throughout the week and react accordingly.
Even if McCoy can't play, this is still a situation we can exploit. Mike Gillislee has been bonkers this year when he has gotten carries, averaging 0.35 Rushing NEP per carry with a 57.1% Success Rate. The league averages in those categories for running backs are -0.01 and 40.67%, respectively, so Gillislee has been blowing dudes out of the water this year. It's over a small sample of 56 carries, so he'd obviously slow down if given a full work load. But if he winds up getting the start this week, he's a guy we can trust without much hesitation.
Entering last week, there had been some concern about how the team would perform without center Eric Wood. Wood broke his leg in Week 9 before the team's bye, landing himself on injured reserve. He's a key cog in the offensive line, and an injury like that could derail this silly efficiency. That didn't happen in Week 11, though.
McCoy, Gillislee, and Jonathan Williams combined to tote the rock 23 times that day, racking up 131 yards and 5.72 Rushing NEP to go with a 60.9% Success Rate. Even with Wood out, the offensive line was able to generate rushing lanes for the backs, and we should expect the same going forward.
Obviously, it's tough to have a situation where we don't know who'll wind up starting the game. But as long as we get some semblance of certainty prior to kickoff on Sunday, you're going to want exposure to the Bills' backfield in DFS, regardless of who winds up being the top dog.
