5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 12
New England Patriots Passing Offense
Just like with Wilson and the Seahawks, you're not going to catch anybody napping on the New England Patriots. Sometimes, though, the matchup is good enough where that just doesn't matter, and that looks like the case on Sunday.
Because Tom Brady is capable of playing well only when he is angry, we can safely conclude that dude is on the verge of death rage at this point. He has been simply unconscious with his efficiency, averaging 0.45 Passing NEP per drop back for the season. No other quarterback is above 0.40, and second-place Dak Prescott is down at 0.38. Brady's pretty good at this football thing. Not that you needed reassurance on that.
The matchup doesn't get much better than what the Patriots have this weekend. They'll face the New York Jets, one of the most glaring funnel defenses in the entire league. While the Jets are sixth against the run, they fall all the way to 28th against the pass, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics. If Patriots head coach Bill Belichick lives up to his reputation of attacking the opposing team's biggest weakness, Brady should continue slangin' it on Sunday.
The one concern with Brady is whether he can maintain his efficiency if Rob Gronkowski were to miss another game. Gronkowski's 1.05 Target NEP per target is easily the best on the team (and the best in the league for any player with at least 15 targets), meaning we should expect the team's efficiency to decrease when he's out of the lineup. That didn't happen in Week 11.
On 41 drop backs without Gronkowski, Brady averaged 0.34 Passing NEP per drop back. That was while playing across the country against the league's 18th-ranked pass defense in the San Francisco 49ers. Now, the Patriots are much closer to home and facing an inferior foe. The supporting cast may finally be good enough where Brady can excel even when Gronkowski can't go.
Julian Edelman showed last week that he's still the player we want to stack with Brady in the offense. He handled 17 of the team's 38 targeted throws, turning them into 8 receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown. The efficiency wasn't there -- it hasn't been all season -- but with a matchup this good, that volume is unfathomably delicious.
If Chris Hogan were to miss another game with his back injury, then we'd at least have to give consideration to Malcolm Mitchell. Mitchell flashed his big-play ability last week by turning his 5 targets into 4 receptions for 98 yards and a touchdown. Most importantly, he played 85.5% of the snaps, second on the team among receivers behind Edelman. At the bare minimum price on FanDuel, there's enough upside there to at least make things intriguing.
