5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 12
New York Giants Rushing Offense
The New York Giants can chill at my Thanksgiving table any time after the gift they granted us in Week 11. They thrust Rashad Jennings into a more firm role, allowing us to unleash him on our lineups for a matchup against the Cleveland Browns. It doesn't get more beautiful than that.
Jennings finished last week's game with 21 carries and 6 targets, blasting rookie Paul Perkins out of the water in the usage department. Jennings also played a season-high 70.1% of the snaps, seeing an increase in that category for the fifth consecutive week. Perkins may still get his chance this season, but this is unquestionably Jennings' job at the moment.
Overall, Jennings hasn't been his usually-efficient self this season. He ranks 30th in Rushing NEP per carry of the 36 running backs with at least 80 carries, well below his mark from last year. But the offense seems to have corrected some things over their bye week that has helped Jennings to regain some of that lost efficiency.
| Time Frame | Carries | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Bye | 64 | -9.93 | -0.16 | 35.94% |
| After Bye | 47 | 1.74 | 0.04 | 38.30% |
Even with the improvements, Jennings has been slightly below the league average in Success Rate the past three weeks. But you don't necessarily have to be a world beater to best the Browns' rush defense.
The Browns enter Week 12 ranked 31st in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. They've allowed four separate running backs to top 100 rushing yards against them, including 168 yards for Jeremy Hill on just 9 attempts. Also in that sample are Matt Jones and Terrance West, guys who have since seen their roles either decrease or evaporate completely. This is a defense against which Jennings can have a feast of his own.
An additional perk of this game is that it should feature a boatload of plays, as noted by Pat Thorman of Pro Football Focus.
Over the last month, the #Giants (64%) and #Browns (41%) are the league’s two heaviest no-huddle offenses. They face each other in Week 12.
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) November 21, 2016
The Giants and Browns currently rank second and fifth, respectively, in fewest seconds per play, a recipe for some juicy point totals. This provides us with a little bit of an extra cushion just in case Perkins' role does perk back up again.
Given the rocky season Jennings has had thus far, you're never going to be fully comfortable plugging him into your lineup. But when the matchup is as juicy as this one, and all signs are pointing toward continued usage for the veteran, you don't have much choice but to just lock him in.
