Fantasy Football: Analyzing the Downside for Each Relevant Rookie Running Back
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Downside: Offensive scheme ambiguity
The Panthers needed to do something in the draft to change the offense. Last season, despite having Cam Newton under center, the team finished with the fourth-worst schedule-adjusted offense in football according to our metrics.
So, to help, they selected Christian McCaffrey eighth overall in this year's draft. Makes sense, right?
Theoretically, yes. But in order for McCaffrey to truly dominate as a player and as a fantasy asset, the Panthers are probably going to have to change up their power run scheme on offense a bit. And they're going to have to start targeting their running backs through the air.
Last season, only Green Bay threw a fewer percentage of their passes to the running back position. Jonathan Stewart, after playing nine years in Carolina and tallying over 1,500 carries, has seen more than 31 targets in a single season just once.
Oh, and that brings up another point on McCaffrey and his Year 1 potential in fantasy: Jonathan Stewart is still on the roster. Splitting a backfield will result in fewer potential carries, and while McCaffrey may not have profiled to be a 250-carry running back, having J-Stew on the roster also decreases the potential for red zone scoring. Stewart finished ninth in the NFL in carries within an opponents' five-yard line last season.
McCaffrey is arguably the best running back in this class -- I think he is the best back in the class -- but from a fantasy standpoint, there are a lot of things in his way in Year 1. At least at this point in time.
