Fantasy Football: Analyzing the Downside for Each Relevant Rookie Running Back

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

Downside: Coaches' decision-making

Dalvin Cook landed in Minnesota, which makes sense after the Vikings finished dead last in rushing efficiency last year, per our schedule-adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) metric. They were so bad running the football that the difference in effectiveness between them and the 31st-ranked Buccaneers was the same difference between the Buccaneers and the 23rd-ranked Panthers.

It should be assumed that Cook is now the best running back in the Vikings' backfield. Despite his bad combine, his production profile from college is really strong, having carried the ball on over 55% of Florida State's carries last year, accumulating over 67% of the team's rushing yards. He's a good running back. And his competition for touches is a change-of-pace guy in Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray, who's one of the more overrated backs in the league.

Here's the thing, though: of all backfields for Cook to go to, this is the one where raw talent may not matter as much as it should. Remember what happened last season? Despite McKinnon being a "more talented" running back, the team opted to feed Matt Asiata, a player who ran a 4.81 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. I bet 10% of you reading this article could run a 4.81 40.

Asiata ended up tied for the third-most carries in the league from within an opponent's five-yard line last year, besting players like Devonta Freeman, Ezekiel Elliott, and DeMarco Murray.

This year, that high-leverage player for the Vikings could be Murray, who signed a three-year deal this offseason with over $3 million guaranteed. Murray also had the sixth-most goal line carries in football last year, scoring nine touchdowns from five yards out or fewer.

If Murray sees some share of early-down work and is the goal line back in the offense, then Cook's rookie season ceiling isn't as high as we might have initially thought.