Fantasy Football: Analyzing the Downside for Each Relevant Rookie Running Back
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Downside: A veteran backfield
OK, OK. I get it. Jeremy Hill isn't good and Giovani Bernard is coming off of an ACL tear. That's why you can make a strong, strong argument that it's not Leonard Fournette with the best shot at being this year's best rookie running back in fantasy football, it's Joe Mixon.
With that being said, assuming the Bengals have a motivated Hill that they don't cut to go along with a healthy Bernard, we've got a crowded backfield. Period.
Despite his Success Rate -- or the percentage of positive expected points runs made by a running back -- dipping each consecutive season in the league, Hill still saw incredible red zone opportunity last season.
| Split | Attempts | Rank | Touchdowns | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside 5 | 16 | T-7th | 6 | T-11th |
| Inside 10 | 25 | T-8th | 7 | T-10th |
| Inside 20 | 48 | T-5th | 8 | T-9th |
If even half of that type of volume continues for Hill, then Mixon's upside is immediately capped.
From a pass-catching standpoint, Gio Bernard finished the year with a 9.06% market share through the air, which was 16th-best at the running back position despite the fact that he played just 10 games. Prorating that over a 16-game season would've yielded the fourth-best target market share at running back in football.
The reason I'm only bringing up volume here is because neither player should scare us from an efficiency standpoint, which is another reason to believe Mixon is in a better-than-perceived spot, even in Year 1. But if the Bengals hold onto Jeremy Hill, and if Bernard comes back healthy, then Mixon will have his work cut out for him.
