Fantasy Football: Analyzing the Downside for Each Relevant Rookie Running Back

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Downside: Early-down work

Trust me, the Saints didn't draft Alvin Kamara to be an early-down workhorse. He had a sub-20% rushing attempt market share this past year at Tennessee, averaging fewer than 10 carries per game for the Vols. He carried the ball a grand total of 210 times over his two-year college career.

Add in Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram, and it's obvious Kamara isn't going to be touching the rock consistently on first and second downs.

But, again, that's not why New Orleans drafted him. He had a 16.81% reception market share last season in college, which was one of the best marks in this year's draft class. He's an electric player. He, in an offense that has ranked first, fourth, first, first, first, and first in running back receptions over the last six seasons, found the best place to thrive in the NFL.

The expectation is that Kamara will play the "Darren Sproles role" in New Orleans. And despite never seeing more than 87 carries in a single season for the Saints, Sproles has two of the top-three PPR season-long totals on the team over the last six years.

The problem is that it took 100-plus targets for him to get there. With an able pass-catcher out of the backfield in Ingram -- that pass-catching alternative wasn't exactly there when Sproles was a Saint -- it's tough to envision a scenario where Kamara reaches that kind of target workload. And without the early-down work to combat that, Kamara's a tough sell to be a consistent back right away.