Fantasy Football: Analyzing the Downside for Each Relevant Rookie Running Back
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
Downside: Spencer Ware's existence
Had the Chiefs selected a running back in, say, Round 5, I wouldn't be as worried about Spencer Ware's outlook in 2017. But not only did Kansas City take Kareem Hunt in the third round, they actually traded up to get Kareem Hunt in the third round.
There are two schools of thought surrounding this pick, at least as it pertains to redraft leagues. The first is that Hunt is simply a depth add who can take over Charcandrick West's role. West, last year, saw 21.36% of Kansas City's carries, which is what you see from a good backup in the NFL.
Meanwhile, others believe Hunt has an opportunity to take the lead back role in this offense. And I don't think that's completely out of the question. Ware carried the ball fewer than 300 times in three seasons at LSU, and he doesn't profile as the most athletic back in the world. To be blunt, he was a sixth-round pick for a reason.
Last season was the first time Ware carried the ball more than 200 times. Like, in both college and the pros. And -- if you push the impact injury might've played aside -- his rushing numbers suffered versus what we saw from Ware in 2015 according to our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric.
| Year | Rushes | Rushing NEP per Rush | Success Rate | Yards/Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 72 | 0.20 | 50.00% | 5.6 |
| 2016 | 214 | -0.07 | 44.86% | 4.3 |
For reference, the average Rushing NEP per rush rate among running backs over the last two years has hovered -0.03, and anything above a 40% Success Rate should be considered above average.
So what happened last year for Ware? Part of the efficiency dip was big-play related. In 2015, 12.50% of his rushes went for 10 or more yards, and 5.56% of them went 20 or more yards. In 2016, those numbers were 9.35% and 1.40%, respectively.
Perhaps, then, we overstated the kind of running back Spencer Ware is after his uber-efficient, semi-breakout in 2015? Maybe he's just meant for that type of role, given that's what he's done throughout his career dating back to college.
And if that's the case, Kareem Hunt does have some upside during his rookie season. He'll still have to beat out Ware, though, to reach that ceiling.
