Fantasy Football: Analyzing the Downside for Each Relevant Rookie Running Back

D'Onta Foreman, Houston Texans

Downside: Receiving ability

Texans' head coach Bill O'Brien admitted that Lamar Miller saw too many touches last year. In total, Miller ran the ball 268 times, which was 52 rushes more than any other season in his NFL career.

And he did it in 14 games.

So what did Houston do? They went out and drafted D'Onta Foreman, a 230-plus pound back who's coming off an 11-game, 323-attempt season in Texas.

I'd say that makes sense.

There's a legitimate chance that Foreman gets some run right away, and not just because of O'Brien's comments about Miller. The Texans are a fairly run-heavy team, finishing 2016 with the 10th-lowest pass-to-run ratio in the NFL. That may not seem all that noteworthy, but Houston was a lot worse than their record indicated last year: they were a bottom-10 team in football according to our nERD metric, and an average Texans drive started with a point margin of -3.1, which was eighth-worst in the league.

The fact that they finished with 456 rush attempts last year -- the sixth-most in football -- is kind of insane given the negative game scripts they saw.

If we assume Lamar Miller's market share goes from 59% to somewhere around 45% or 50%, and that some of Alfred Blue's 22% share dips, Foreman could be looking at a scenario where he's seeing close to 30% to 35% of Houston's rushing attempts. In that case, you're looking at 130 to 150 rushing attempts, which has some standalone value, especially if he becomes the goal line guy.

But with Miller in the backfield, it'll be tough for Foreman to have any pass-catching upside. Not just because Miller is a proven pass-catcher, but because Foreman caught a total of 13 balls -- thirteen! -- during his three years at Texas.

Foreman could be an interesting later-round fantasy option this year on a run-friendly team, but without even an average potential for catches, his opportunity is capped.