Fantasy Football: Analyzing the Downside for Each Relevant Rookie Running Back
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers
Downside: Open competition
The obvious downside for Jamaal Williams would be that Ty Montgomery, an ex-wide receiver, is sharing the Green Bay Packers' backfield. Catching passes won't be easy.
But the reason I mention competition as his problem is because the Packers went dart throwing during the draft. They didn't take Williams with a second- or third-round pick. They got him in the fourth, and immediately followed it up with UTEP's Aaron Jones in the fifth, another running back. And then they wrapped it all up with Devante Mays in the seventh.
Probability tells us that Williams has the best shot of the three to see touches this year, but don't sleep on Aaron Jones. Take a look at the two backs' production profiles from their final college season:
| Stat | Aaron Jones | Jamaal Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Speed Score | 96.21 | 95.50 |
| Att/Game | 19.08 | 23.4 |
| Att Market Share | 56.27% | 43.17% |
| Ru. Yds Market Share | 79.47% | 52.62% |
| TD Market Share | 85.00% | 42.86% |
| Rec Market Share | 14.36% | 2.86% |
| Rec Yds Market Share | 10.42% | 3.11% |
That's -- that's pretty drastic.
No, this isn't an apples to apples comparison. But market share numbers matter, regardless of the school or competition faced. And what could be most alarming is Williams' lack of receiving, as most successful backs -- even if they aren't receivers at the NFL level -- were pass-catchers at the college level.
There could be some competition in Green Bay.
